Sport Picks
Al Hilal vs Al Gharafa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Asia
AFC Champions League Kingdom Arena, Riyadh 
Match Events
32'
32'
Summerville C.
33'
33'
Bennacer I.
45'
45'
Neves R.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
Al Hilal in this AFC Champions League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Hilal.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
64%
15%
21%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al Hilal
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
64%
/ High Confidence
- Al Hilal have won more games recently than Al Gharafa.
- Al Hilal are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this AFC Champions League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Al Hilal here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Al Hilal Clean Sheet 68%
Al Gharafa Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Al Hilal | Al Gharafa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 29 |
| Wins | 20 | 9 |
| Draws | 4 | 4 |
| Losses | 3 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 2.41 | 1.48 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.85 | 2.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.63 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 15, 2026 AFC Champions League
Al Hilal vs Al Gharafa
2:1
Nov 3, 2025 AFC Champions League
Al Gharafa vs Al Hilal
1:2
Dec 3, 2024 AFC Champions League
Al Hilal vs Al Gharafa
3:0
Feb 3, 2024 Club Friendly
Al Gharafa vs Al Hilal
1:2
May 15, 2012 AFC Champions League
Al Hilal vs Al Gharafa
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Al Hilal Compare
Top Goalscorer Milinkovic-Savic S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31
Al Gharafa Compare
Top Goalscorer Aladin H.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Al Hilal 95 / 100
Al Gharafa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Al Hilal Al Gharafa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Al Hilal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Al Hilal scored in 93% of their last 27 outings.
Defensive concern: Al Gharafa conceded in 90% of 29 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Al Hilal went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Al Hilal VS Al Gharafa
3.13 Goals Scored 1.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Al Hilal
(Home) 15 Sept
Al Hilal
2 : 1 Al Gharafa
12 Sept
Al Taawon
0 : 6 Al Hilal
07 Sept
Al Hilal
0 : 2 Neom SC
04 Sept
Al Shabab
0 : 2 Al Hilal
01 Sept
Al Hilal
3 : 0 Al Ahli SC
Page 1 of 6
15 Sept
Al Hilal
2 : 1 Al Gharafa
07 Sept
Al Hilal
0 : 2 Neom SC
01 Sept
Al Hilal
3 : 0 Al Ahli SC
14 Aug
Al Hilal
4 : 2 Al Faisaly
03 Aug
Al Hilal
3 : 3 Al Ahli
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Al Gharafa
(Away) 08 Oct
Al Wakra
3 : 2 Al Gharafa
01 Oct
Al Gharafa
4 : 2 Al Mesaimeer
15 Sept
Al Hilal
2 : 1 Al Gharafa
11 Sept
Al Gharafa
0 : 0 Lusail
05 Sept
Al Sadd
4 : 1 Al Gharafa
Page 1 of 6
08 Oct
Al Wakra
3 : 2 Al Gharafa
15 Sept
Al Hilal
2 : 1 Al Gharafa
05 Sept
Al Sadd
4 : 1 Al Gharafa
01 Sept
Al Sadd
2 : 1 Al Gharafa
27 Jul
Al Riyadh
2 : 2 Al Gharafa
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:1 | 3 |
| 2 | Gamba Osaka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 |
| 3 | Shanghai Port | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:4 | 3 |
| 4 | Beijing Guoan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 6 | Jeonbuk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 7 | Daejeon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 | Buriram United F.C. | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 | Johor DT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 10 | Kashiwa Reysol | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 11 | Port MTI FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 12 | Kyoto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 13 | Ratchaburi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4:6 | 0 |
| 14 | Pohang | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 15 | Cong An Ha Noi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 16 | Newcastle Jets | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:7 | 0 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 2 | Esteghlal TEH | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 3 | Al Hilal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 4 | Al Qadsiah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 | Neftchi Fargona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 | Pakhtakor | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 | Al Ittihad | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 | Al Ahli SC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 10 | Shamal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 11 | Al Gharafa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 12 | Al Wasl | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 13 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 14 | Tractor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 15 | Al Sadd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 16 | Al Nassr | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:4 | 0 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
