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Al Karkh vs Al Shorta - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Moumouni B.
87' Event
Sambou B.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Al Karkh and Al Shorta finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Shorta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Al Karkh
30%
Draws
43%
Al Shorta
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Shorta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Al Shorta carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 43% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Al Shorta here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Al Karkh Clean Sheet 17%
Al Shorta Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Karkh Al Shorta
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 15
Draws 6 10
Losses 11 3
Goals Scored 1.32 1.54
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 28, 2026 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Al Shorta
0:2
Nov 20, 2025 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Al Karkh
3:0
May 8, 2025 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Al Karkh
1:0
Dec 11, 2024 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Al Shorta
1:2
May 21, 2024 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Al Karkh
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Karkh Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Al Shorta Compare

Top Goalscorer Moumouni B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sambou B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Karkh 31 / 100
Al Shorta 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Karkh Al Shorta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Shorta Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Al Karkh remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Al Karkh found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Al Shorta conceded in 46% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Al Karkh VS Al Shorta
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Karkh

(Home)
17 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Naft Missan
13 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Duhok
09 Sept
Al Talaba
3 : 2
Al Karkh
04 Sept
Karbala
1 : 0
Al Karkh
29 Aug
Al Karkh
2 : 2
Al Kahraba
Page 1 of 6

Al Shorta

(Away)
08 Oct
Al Talaba
0 : 0
Al Shorta
19 Sept
Al Shorta
2 : 0
Al Kahraba
16 Sept
Al Shorta
1 : 0
Al Seeb
12 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Ghaz Al Shamal
08 Sept
Al Gharraf
1 : 2
Al Shorta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)