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Al-Karma vs Diyala

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

79' Event
Faisal A.
(Penalty)
87'
Faisal A.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Al-Karma and Diyala finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al-Karma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Al-Karma
20%
Draws
20%
Diyala
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al-Karma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Diyala haven't matched Al-Karma's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Al-Karma's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Al-Karma Clean Sheet 20%
Diyala Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Karma Diyala
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 9
Draws 12 7
Losses 4 14
Goals Scored 1.55 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.76 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 3, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Al-Karma
1:2
May 27, 2026 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Diyala
1:0
Feb 14, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Al-Karma
1:1
Mar 29, 2025 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Diyala
0:0
Jan 19, 2025 Stars League
Diyala vs Al-Karma
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Karma 85 / 100
Diyala 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Karma Diyala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al-Karma Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al-Karma has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Diyala conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Al-Karma found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Al-Karma VS Diyala
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Karma

(Home)
19 Sept
Al-Karma
1 : 0
Zakho
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2
Al-Karma
09 Sept
Al-Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
30 Aug
Al-Karma
2 : 0
Karbala
Page 1 of 6

Diyala

(Away)
19 Sept
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1 : 1
Diyala
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
29 Aug
Diyala
3 : 3
Al Golan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)