Sport Picks

Rwanda

Premier League Al Merreikh Stadium

Al-Merreikh

1 - 0

Gicumbi

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Al-Merreikh and Gicumbi finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al-Merreikh.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%

Al-Merreikh

22%

Draws

18%

Gicumbi

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Al-Merreikh

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Al-Merreikh come out ahead of Gicumbi on wins alone.
Model gives Al-Merreikh a 60% chance of winning this.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 13%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%

Al-Merreikh Clean Sheet 68%

Gicumbi Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Al-Merreikh	Gicumbi
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	14	9
Draws	11	7
Losses	5	14
Goals Scored	1.63	1
Goals Conceded	0.5	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.50	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Premier League

Gicumbi vs Al-Merreikh

Possession: 52% - 47% Cards: 2 - 3

0:3

Dec 21, 2025 Premier League

Al-Merreikh vs Gicumbi

Possession: 47% - 46% Cards: 3 - 4

1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Merreikh 68 / 100

Gicumbi 19 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Al-Merreikh Gicumbi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MER Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gicumbi has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Attacking prowess: Al-Merreikh scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Gicumbi's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Al-Merreikh VS Gicumbi

1.63 Goals Scored 1

0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25

50% Over 1.5 75%

50% Over 2.5 50%

13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al-Hilal Omdurman	34	23	6	5	74:25	75
2	APR	34	19	11	4	50:28	68
3	Al-Merreikh	34	16	11	7	41:24	59
4	Rayon Sport	34	14	14	6	40:30	56
5	Kiyovu	34	13	14	7	34:21	53
6	Police	34	12	16	6	29:19	52
7	Mukura Victory Sports	34	12	11	11	36:38	47
8	Marines	34	12	9	13	47:43	45
9	Bugesera	34	12	8	14	34:39	44
10	Musanze	34	11	10	13	38:37	43
11	Gorilla	34	10	10	14	31:42	40
12	Gicumbi	34	10	8	16	38:54	38
13	Etincelles	34	7	16	11	32:40	37
14	AS Kigali	34	8	11	15	27:39	35
15	Gasogi United	34	8	11	15	29:44	35
16	Amagaju	34	9	8	17	19:38	35
17	Muhanga	34	8	7	19	25:46	31
18	Rutsiro	34	6	11	17	30:47	29