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Al Minaa vs Al Karma - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al Minaa host Al Karma in the Stars League. Little to choose between these two on current form. Al Karma have shipped 0.72 goals a game lately, while Al Minaa have conceded 1.28 and scored 1.1. Past meetings favor Al Minaa slightly — 2-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 1, 2026, ending 2:0. xG projections (0.94 - 1.50) back Al Karma to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Al Minaa
30%
Draws
51%
Al Karma
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Karma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Minaa haven't matched Al Karma's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Al Karma's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Al Minaa Clean Sheet 16%
Al Karma Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Minaa Al Karma
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 14
Draws 10 12
Losses 11 3
Goals Scored 1.1 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.28 0.72
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Stars League
Al Minaa vs Al Karma
2:0
Nov 22, 2025 Stars League
Al Karma vs Al Minaa
2:0
May 3, 2025 Stars League
Al Karma vs Al Minaa
0:1
Feb 8, 2025 Stars League
Al Minaa vs Al Karma
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Minaa 19 / 100
Al Karma 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Minaa Al Karma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Karma Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Al Minaa scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 1.75 goals.

Al Minaa has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Al Karma's defensive record shows goals conceded in 52% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Minaa VS Al Karma
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Minaa

(Home)
16 Oct
Newroz
2 : 0
Al Minaa
10 Oct
Al Minaa
2 : 0
Ghaz Al Shamal
18 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Duhok
13 Sept
Al Kahraba
2 : 1
Al Minaa
09 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Naft Missan
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Al Karma

(Away)
17 Oct
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0 : 0
Al Karma
10 Oct
Al Karma
3 : 2
Al Karkh
19 Sept
Al Karma
1 : 0
Zakho
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2
Al Karma
09 Sept
Al Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 10 7 3 0 17:7 24
2 Newroz 10 6 3 1 16:4 21
3 Al Naft 10 6 3 1 13:5 21
4 Al Zawraa 10 5 3 2 15:7 18
5 Erbil 10 5 3 2 13:5 18
6 Al Shorta 10 4 5 1 10:5 17
7 Al Golan 10 3 5 2 10:9 14
8 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 10 2 6 2 14:12 12
9 Duhok 10 2 6 2 14:13 12
10 Diyala 10 3 3 4 15:16 12
11 Al Minaa 10 3 3 4 10:12 12
12 Ghaz Al Shamal 10 2 5 3 5:7 11
13 Al Talaba 10 2 5 3 10:14 11
14 Al Mosul 10 3 2 5 10:15 11
15 Zakho 10 2 3 5 7:14 9
16 Al Gharraf 10 2 3 5 6:13 9
17 Al Karkh 10 2 2 6 13:18 8
18 Al Kahraba 10 1 5 4 6:11 8
19 Naft Missan 10 1 5 4 7:14 8
20 Karbala 10 1 3 6 7:17 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)