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Al Naft vs Al Gharraf

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

39'
Ali M.
60' Event
Khalaf H.

AI Match Summary

Al Naft in this Stars League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Naft.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Al Naft
20%
Draws
7%
Al Gharraf
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Naft

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Al Naft have won more games recently than Al Gharraf.
  • Model gives Al Naft a 73% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Al Naft Clean Sheet 68%
Al Gharraf Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Naft Al Gharraf
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 6
Draws 12 8
Losses 7 16
Goals Scored 0.83 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 9, 2026 Stars League
Al Naft vs Al Gharraf
1:0
Jan 14, 2026 Stars League
Al Gharraf vs Al Naft
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Naft Compare

Top Goalscorer Khalaf H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Al Gharraf Compare

Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Naft 95 / 100
Al Gharraf 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Naft Al Gharraf

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Naft Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Gharraf has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Al Naft went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Al Gharraf lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Naft VS Al Gharraf
1.13 Goals Scored 0.5
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Naft

(Home)
18 Sept
Al Mosul
0 : 1
Al Naft
14 Sept
Al Naft
2 : 1
Karbala
09 Sept
Al-Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
05 Sept
Al Minaa
0 : 3
Al Naft
31 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 0
Al Naft
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Al Gharraf

(Away)
17 Sept
Al Zawraa
2 : 0
Al Gharraf
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Al Gharraf
1 : 2
Al Shorta
03 Sept
Al Kahraba
0 : 0
Al Gharraf
30 Aug
Al Gharraf
0 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)