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Al Naft vs Newroz

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Khalaf H.
64' Event
Yaseen S.
87' Event
Komolafe P.

AI Match Summary

Al Naft in this Stars League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Naft.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Al Naft
30%
Draws
37%
Newroz
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Newroz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Newroz have won more games recently than Al Naft.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on Newroz taking it.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Al Naft Clean Sheet 20%
Newroz Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Naft Newroz
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 15
Draws 12 8
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 0.83 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.79 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 1, 2026 Stars League
Al Naft vs Newroz
2:1
Jan 5, 2026 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Naft
2:0
May 12, 2025 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Naft
0:1
Jan 20, 2025 Stars League
Al Naft vs Newroz
1:1
Jun 19, 2024 Stars League
Al Naft vs Newroz
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Naft Compare

Top Goalscorer Khalaf H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Yaseen S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Newroz Compare

Top Goalscorer Komolafe P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Naft 16 / 100
Newroz 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Naft Newroz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newroz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Al Naft went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Al Naft found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).

Newroz let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Naft VS Newroz
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
0.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Naft

(Home)
18 Sept
Al Mosul
0 : 1
Al Naft
14 Sept
Al Naft
2 : 1
Karbala
09 Sept
Al-Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
05 Sept
Al Minaa
0 : 3
Al Naft
31 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 0
Al Naft
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Newroz

(Away)
19 Sept
Ghaz Al Shamal
0 : 0
Newroz
14 Sept
Al Golan
0 : 2
Newroz
09 Sept
Newroz
3 : 0
Al Mosul
04 Sept
Naft Missan
0 : 2
Newroz
30 Aug
Newroz
0 : 0
Duhok
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)