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Al Najaf vs Al-Karma

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Hussein A.
81' Event
Hussein A.
90' Event
Abd Majbas O.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Al Najaf and Al-Karma finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al-Karma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Al Najaf
30%
Draws
43%
Al-Karma
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al-Karma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al-Karma come out ahead of Al Najaf on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Al-Karma's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Al-Karma have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Al Najaf Clean Sheet 23%
Al-Karma Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Najaf Al-Karma
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 4 12
Draws 5 13
Losses 20 4
Goals Scored 0.83 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.9 0.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Stars League
Al Najaf vs Al-Karma
0:3
Jan 5, 2026 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Al Najaf
2:0
Apr 28, 2025 Stars League
Al Najaf vs Al-Karma
0:3
Jan 15, 2025 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Al Najaf
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Najaf Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al-Karma Compare

Top Goalscorer Hussein A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Abd Majbas O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Najaf 13 / 100
Al-Karma 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Najaf Al-Karma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al-Karma Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Najaf found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Al-Karma conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.25 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Al Najaf remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Najaf VS Al-Karma
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Najaf

(Home)
01 Jun
Al Najaf
1 : 0
Al Zawraa
28 May
Al-Qassim
1 : 2
Al Najaf
24 May
Naft Missan
2 : 1
Al Najaf
20 May
Al Najaf
2 : 5
Al Karkh
16 May
Zakho
1 : 1
Al Najaf
Page 1 of 6

Al-Karma

(Away)
21 Aug
Al-Karma
2 : 1
Al Shorta
15 Aug
Al-Karma
1 : 1
Al Mosul
02 Jun
Al Kahraba
0 : 3
Al-Karma
27 May
Al-Karma
1 : 0
Diyala
19 May
Al Talaba
1 : 1
Al-Karma
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)