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Al-Najma vs Al-Budaiya

Bahrain Bahrain

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al-Najma play Al-Budaiya in the Premier League. Al-Najma are favorites here. Recently, Al-Najma averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. Al-Budaiya averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. In past meetings, Al-Najma won 2, Al-Budaiya won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 25, 2026 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Al-Najma and 1.00 for Al-Budaiya. This points to a Al-Najma double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Al-Najma
25%
Draws
15%
Al-Budaiya
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Al-Najma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Al-Najma picked up more points recently compared to Al-Budaiya.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
Al-Najma Clean Sheet 23%
Al-Budaiya Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Najma Al-Budaiya
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 8
Draws 6 5
Losses 15 17
Goals Scored 1.1 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 25, 2026 Premier League
Al-Budaiya vs Al-Najma
0:3
Apr 16, 2026 Premier League
Al-Najma vs Al-Budaiya
1:2
Nov 8, 2025 Premier League
Al-Budaiya vs Al-Najma
1:1
Oct 14, 2023 Bahrain Cup
Al-Budaiya vs Al-Najma
1:0
Oct 11, 2022 King's Cup
Al-Budaiya vs Al-Najma
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Najma Compare

Top Goalscorer Mohamed Q.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Al-Budaiya Compare

Top Goalscorer N'Goma K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Najma 59 / 100
Al-Budaiya 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Najma Al-Budaiya

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al-Najma Win (1)
Secondary Pick Al-Najma & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.3%
2.08
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Al-Najma attacking → ← attacking Al-Budaiya

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al-Najma scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Al-Budaiya let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Al-Najma went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Al-Budaiya lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 29
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.50
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Al-Muharraq22174145:755
2Al Khalidiyah22180442:1654
3Al Riffa22154341:1749
4Malkia2296723:1633
5Aali Club2294919:2031
6Al-Hidd2286829:2330
7Al-Ahli2276928:2827
8Sitra2276922:3127
9Al-Budaiya22641224:3422
10Al-Najma22641221:3522
11Al-Shabbab2235148:3414
12Bahrain SC22211915:567