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Al Najma vs Neom SC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

Saudi Professional League 2025/2026 King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Buraidah
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Match Events

13'
Kone A.
13'
Al Harabi A.
43' Event
Al Aqel M. S. M.

AI Match Summary

Al Najma in this Saudi Professional League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Najma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Al Najma
35%
Draws
45%
Neom SC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Neom SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Neom SC lately — more wins on the board than Al Najma.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on Neom SC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Neom SC have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Al Najma Clean Sheet 16%
Neom SC Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Najma Neom SC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 4 14
Draws 9 7
Losses 16 8
Goals Scored 1 1.41
Goals Conceded 2.1 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Najma vs Neom SC
2:1
Dec 25, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Neom SC vs Al Najma
2:1
Feb 19, 2025 Division 1
Neom SC vs Al Najma
2:0
Oct 1, 2024 Division 1
Al Najma vs Neom SC
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Najma Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Aqel M. S. M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Boutobba B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Neom SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Kone A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Najma 28 / 100
Neom SC 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Najma Neom SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Neom SC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Al Najma found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Neom SC conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Al Najma remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Najma VS Neom SC
0.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Najma

(Home)
19 Sept
Al Anwar
1 : 1
Al Najma
14 Sept
Al Najma
1 : 1
Al Raed
07 Sept
Al Okhdood
2 : 2
Al Najma
01 Sept
Al Najma
1 : 1
Al Jabalain
27 Aug
Jeddah Club
1 : 0
Al Najma
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Neom SC

(Away)
13 Sept
Neom SC
4 : 2
Al Fateh
07 Sept
Al Hilal
0 : 2
Neom SC
03 Sept
Neom SC
3 : 0
Al Khaleej
28 Aug
Al Riyadh
1 : 0
Neom SC
24 Aug
Neom SC
0 : 2
Al Qadsiah
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Nassr 34 28 2 4 91:28 86
2 Al Hilal 34 25 9 0 85:27 84
3 Al Ahli SC 34 25 6 3 71:25 81
4 Al Qadsiah 34 23 8 3 83:34 77
5 Al Ittihad 34 16 7 11 55:48 55
6 Al Taawon 34 15 8 11 59:46 53
7 Al Ettifaq FC 34 14 8 12 51:55 50
8 Neom SC 34 12 9 13 43:48 45
9 Al Hazem Rass 34 11 9 14 38:57 42
10 Al Fayha 34 10 8 16 41:54 38
11 Al Fateh 34 9 10 15 41:55 37
12 Al Khaleej 34 10 7 17 54:62 37
13 Al Shabab 34 8 11 15 44:57 35
14 Al Kholood 34 9 6 19 39:61 33
15 Al Riyadh 34 7 9 18 35:63 30
16 Damac 34 6 11 17 32:55 29
17 Al Okhdood 34 5 5 24 27:70 20
18 Al Najma 34 3 7 24 32:76 16
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Division 1 (Main)