Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Nassr vs Al Ahli SC

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

Saudi Professional League King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Al Amri A.
18'
Atangana V.
45'
Al Johani Z.

AI Match Summary

Al Nassr in this Saudi Professional League matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Nassr.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Al Nassr
39%
Draws
31%
Al Ahli SC
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Al Nassr lately — more wins on the board than Al Ahli SC.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Al Nassr Clean Sheet 12%
Al Ahli SC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Nassr Al Ahli SC
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 22 21
Draws 1 4
Losses 4 4
Goals Scored 2.13 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Al Ahli SC
2:0
Jan 2, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Ahli SC vs Al Nassr
3:2
Aug 23, 2025 Super Cup
Al Nassr vs Al Ahli SC
2:3
Feb 13, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Ahli SC vs Al Nassr
2:3
Sep 13, 2024 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Al Ahli SC
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Nassr Compare

Top Goalscorer Ronaldo C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Coman K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Al Ahli SC Compare

Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Nassr 29 / 100
Al Ahli SC 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Nassr Al Ahli SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Nassr found the back of the net in 96% of recent matches (27 games).

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Al Nassr remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Al Ahli SC let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Nassr VS Al Ahli SC
2.13 Goals Scored 2.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Nassr

(Home)
21 May
Al Nassr
4 : 1
Damac
16 May
Al Nassr
0 : 1
Gamba Osaka
12 May
Al Nassr
1 : 1
Al Hilal
07 May
Al Shabab
2 : 4
Al Nassr
03 May
Al Qadsiah
3 : 1
Al Nassr
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Al Ahli SC

(Away)
19 Jul
Rio Ave
2 : 2
Al Ahli SC
15 Jul
Holstein Kiel
4 : 1
Al Ahli SC
20 May
Al Khaleej
1 : 4
Al Ahli SC
16 May
Al Ahli SC
3 : 0
Al Kholood
11 May
Al Taawon
1 : 2
Al Ahli SC
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Nassr34282491:2886
2Al Hilal34259085:2784
3Al Ahli SC34256371:2581
4Al Qadsiah34238383:3477
5Al Ittihad341671155:4855
6Al Taawon341581159:4653
7Al Ettifaq FC341481251:5550
8Neom SC341291343:4845
9Al Hazem Rass341191438:5742
10Al Fayha341081641:5438
11Al Fateh349101541:5537
12Al Khaleej341071754:6237
13Al Shabab348111544:5735
14Al Kholood34961939:6133
15Al Riyadh34791835:6330
16Damac346111732:5529
17Al Okhdood34552427:7020
18Al Najma34372432:7616
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Division 1 2026/2027 (Main)