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Stadium Background

Al Nassr vs Damac

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

Saudi Professional League 2025/2026 King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh
Al Nassr Logo

Al Nassr

4 - 1
FT
Damac Logo

Damac

Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Al Hawsawi S.
26'
Al Anazi D.
34' Event
Mane S.
Assist: Joao Felix
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Saudi Professional League 2025/2026 game between Al Nassr and Damac finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Nassr.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Al Nassr
30%
Draws
37%
Damac
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Damac

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Damac haven't matched Al Nassr's recent run of results.
  • 37% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Al Nassr have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 39.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Al Nassr Clean Sheet 20%
Damac Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Nassr Damac
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 24 7
Draws 2 8
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 2.36 0.97
Goals Conceded 1 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.83 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 21, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Damac
4:1
Jan 21, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Damac vs Al Nassr
1:2
Apr 22, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Damac vs Al Nassr
2:3
Nov 29, 2024 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Damac
2:0
Apr 5, 2024 Saudi Professional League
Damac vs Al Nassr
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Nassr Compare

Top Goalscorer Ronaldo C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Mane S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.41
Avg xA / game 0.92

Damac Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Nassr 36 / 100
Damac 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Nassr Damac

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Damac Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Nassr scored in 91% of their last 33 games.

Damac let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Al Nassr has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Al Nassr VS Damac
2.38 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.29
100% Over 1.5 57%
75% Over 2.5 57%
50% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Nassr

(Home)
15 Sept
Al Ain
4 : 0
Al Nassr
12 Sept
Al Khaleej
1 : 1
Al Nassr
09 Sept
Al Nassr
2 : 1
Abha
05 Sept
Al Ittihad
2 : 1
Al Nassr
28 Aug
Al Nassr
2 : 1
Al Taawon
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Damac

(Away)
20 Sept
Damac
3 : 2
Al Adalah
14 Sept
Al Bukiryah
1 : 2
Damac
08 Sept
Damac
0 : 1
Al-Ula
02 Sept
Al Wehda
2 : 2
Damac
28 Aug
Damac
0 : 0
Al Orubah
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Nassr 34 28 2 4 91:28 86
2 Al Hilal 34 25 9 0 85:27 84
3 Al Ahli SC 34 25 6 3 71:25 81
4 Al Qadsiah 34 23 8 3 83:34 77
5 Al Ittihad 34 16 7 11 55:48 55
6 Al Taawon 34 15 8 11 59:46 53
7 Al Ettifaq FC 34 14 8 12 51:55 50
8 Neom SC 34 12 9 13 43:48 45
9 Al Hazem Rass 34 11 9 14 38:57 42
10 Al Fayha 34 10 8 16 41:54 38
11 Al Fateh 34 9 10 15 41:55 37
12 Al Khaleej 34 10 7 17 54:62 37
13 Al Shabab 34 8 11 15 44:57 35
14 Al Kholood 34 9 6 19 39:61 33
15 Al Riyadh 34 7 9 18 35:63 30
16 Damac 34 6 11 17 32:55 29
17 Al Okhdood 34 5 5 24 27:70 20
18 Al Najma 34 3 7 24 32:76 16
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Division 1 (Main)