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Al Qassim vs Al Karkh

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Hmoud Y.
67' Event
Sou E.
Own Goal
70' Event
Raad S.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Al Qassim and Al Karkh finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Karkh.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Al Qassim
20%
Draws
70%
Al Karkh
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Karkh

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Karkh come out ahead of Al Qassim on wins alone.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Al Karkh taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Al Qassim Clean Sheet 12%
Al Karkh Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Qassim Al Karkh
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 0 11
Draws 5 6
Losses 24 11
Goals Scored 0.69 1.32
Goals Conceded 2.72 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.09 1.73
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Stars League
Al Qassim vs Al Karkh
0:3
Sep 20, 2025 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Al Qassim
2:1
Apr 11, 2025 Stars League
Al Qassim vs Al Karkh
1:1
Jan 9, 2025 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Al Qassim
0:0
Apr 23, 2024 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Al Qassim
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Qassim Compare

Avg xG / game 0.84
Avg xA / game 0.55

Al Karkh Compare

Top Goalscorer Hmoud Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Raad S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.57
Avg xA / game 0.96

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Qassim 14 / 100
Al Karkh 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Qassim Al Karkh

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Karkh Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Al Karkh conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Al Qassim scored in 48% of their last 29 outings.

Al Qassim went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Qassim VS Al Karkh
0.8 Goals Scored 1.25
2.2 Goals Conceded 1.38
80% Over 1.5 75%
60% Over 2.5 38%
20% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Qassim

(Home)
01 Jun
Al Mosul
3 : 0
Al Qassim
28 May
Al Qassim
1 : 2
Al Najaf
19 May
Al Qassim
2 : 5
Naft Missan
14 May
Al Zawraa
1 : 1
Al Qassim
10 May
Duhok
2 : 1
Al Qassim
Page 1 of 6

Al Karkh

(Away)
17 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Naft Missan
13 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Duhok
09 Sept
Al Talaba
3 : 2
Al Karkh
04 Sept
Karbala
1 : 0
Al Karkh
29 Aug
Al Karkh
2 : 2
Al Kahraba
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)