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Al-Qassim vs Al Naft

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Yaseen S.
41' Event
Yaseen S.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Al-Qassim and Al Naft finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Naft.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Al-Qassim
35%
Draws
58%
Al Naft
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Al Naft

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Naft carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Al Naft a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Al Naft have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 21.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Al-Qassim Clean Sheet 23%
Al Naft Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Qassim Al Naft
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 0 7
Draws 5 13
Losses 25 7
Goals Scored 0.67 0.7
Goals Conceded 2.73 0.81
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 25, 2026 Stars League
Al-Qassim vs Al Naft
0:2
Sep 14, 2025 Stars League
Al-Qassim vs Al Naft
0:3
Mar 23, 2025 Stars League
Al Naft vs Al-Qassim
1:0
Nov 6, 2024 Stars League
Al-Qassim vs Al Naft
0:0
May 20, 2024 Stars League
Al Naft vs Al-Qassim
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Qassim Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al Naft Compare

Top Goalscorer Yaseen S.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Qassim 10 / 100
Al Naft 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Qassim Al Naft

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Naft Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al-Qassim's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Defensive concern: Al Naft conceded in 59% of 27 recent games.

Recent resilience: Al-Qassim stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al-Qassim VS Al Naft
1.43 Goals Scored 0.88
2.57 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 63%
86% Over 2.5 25%
43% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Qassim

(Home)
01 Jun
Al Mosul
3 : 0
Al-Qassim
28 May
Al-Qassim
1 : 2
Al Najaf
19 May
Al-Qassim
2 : 5
Naft Missan
14 May
Al Zawraa
1 : 1
Al-Qassim
10 May
Duhok
2 : 1
Al-Qassim
Page 1 of 6

Al Naft

(Away)
31 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 0
Al Naft
26 Aug
Al Naft
1 : 1
Duhok
20 Aug
Naft Missan
0 : 0
Al Naft
14 Aug
Al Naft
2 : 0
Al Karkh
01 Jun
Al Naft
2 : 1
Newroz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)