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Al-Qassim vs Diyala

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

39' Event
Abd A.
53' Event
Opare C.
60' Event
Opare C.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Al-Qassim and Diyala finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Diyala.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Al-Qassim
30%
Draws
58%
Diyala
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Diyala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Diyala come out ahead of Al-Qassim on wins alone.
  • Model gives Diyala a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Diyala have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 15%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Al-Qassim Clean Sheet 23%
Diyala Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Qassim Diyala
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 0 9
Draws 5 7
Losses 24 14
Goals Scored 0.69 1.07
Goals Conceded 2.72 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 Stars League
Al-Qassim vs Diyala
0:4
Dec 30, 2025 Stars League
Diyala vs Al-Qassim
3:0
Jun 19, 2025 Stars League
Al-Qassim vs Diyala
0:1
Oct 5, 2024 Stars League
Diyala vs Al-Qassim
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Qassim Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Diyala Compare

Top Goalscorer Opare C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Abd A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Qassim 21 / 100
Diyala 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Qassim Diyala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Diyala Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Al-Qassim scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Diyala's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Al-Qassim has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Al-Qassim VS Diyala
0.83 Goals Scored 0.88
2.17 Goals Conceded 1.38
83% Over 1.5 63%
67% Over 2.5 50%
17% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Qassim

(Home)
01 Jun
Al Mosul
3 : 0
Al-Qassim
28 May
Al-Qassim
1 : 2
Al Najaf
19 May
Al-Qassim
2 : 5
Naft Missan
14 May
Al Zawraa
1 : 1
Al-Qassim
10 May
Duhok
2 : 1
Al-Qassim
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Diyala

(Away)
19 Sept
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1 : 1
Diyala
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
29 Aug
Diyala
3 : 3
Al Golan
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)