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Stadium Background

Al Rayyan vs Umm-Salal

Qatar Qatar

QSL 2025/2026 Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Rodrigo
32' Event
Roger Guedes
38'
Gregore

AI Match Summary

Al Rayyan in this QSL 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Rayyan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Al Rayyan
30%
Draws
27%
Umm-Salal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Rayyan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Al Rayyan lately — more wins on the board than Umm-Salal.
  • Al Rayyan are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular QSL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Al Rayyan have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Al Rayyan Clean Sheet 20%
Umm-Salal Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Rayyan Umm-Salal
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 11
Draws 6 4
Losses 5 14
Goals Scored 2.21 1.76
Goals Conceded 1.28 2.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2026 QSL
Al Rayyan vs Umm-Salal
3:0
Mar 28, 2026 QSL Cup
Al Rayyan vs Umm-Salal
4:3
Nov 22, 2025 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al Rayyan
1:2
Jan 10, 2025 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al Rayyan
2:6
Nov 16, 2024 QSL Cup
Umm-Salal vs Al Rayyan
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Rayyan Compare

Top Goalscorer Roger Guedes
2 Goals
Assists Leader Rodrigo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Umm-Salal Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Rayyan 85 / 100
Umm-Salal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Rayyan Umm-Salal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Rayyan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Rayyan scored in 93% of their last 29 games.

Umm-Salal has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 4.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Al Rayyan stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Rayyan VS Umm-Salal
2 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Rayyan

(Home)
20 Sept
Al Rayyan
2 : 2
Qatar SC
16 Sept
Al Rayyan
4 : 3
Al-Faisaly Amman
11 Sept
Al Rayyan
3 : 0
Al Ahli
05 Sept
Al Rayyan
1 : 1
Al-Duhail
01 Sept
Shamal
3 : 4
Al Rayyan
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Umm-Salal

(Away)
21 Sept
Umm-Salal
1 : 0
Al-Kharitiyath
07 Sept
Umm-Salal
1 : 5
Al Khor
30 Aug
Al Mesaimeer
1 : 2
Umm-Salal
25 Aug
Umm-Salal
1 : 1
Qatar U23
08 Aug
Sporting Lokeren
5 : 0
Umm-Salal
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Sadd 22 14 3 5 56:30 45
2 Shamal 22 12 4 6 39:28 40
3 Al Rayyan 22 11 5 6 46:32 38
4 Al-Gharafa 22 11 3 8 36:36 36
5 Al-Duhail 22 9 6 7 40:27 33
6 Al Arabi (Qatar) 22 9 5 8 37:41 32
7 Al Wakra 22 8 6 8 36:34 30
8 Qatar SC 22 8 5 9 32:36 29
9 Al Ahli 22 8 2 12 34:43 26
10 Al Sailiya 22 6 4 12 25:38 22
11 Al-Shahaniya 22 6 3 13 22:39 21
12 Umm-Salal 22 6 2 14 37:56 20
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Relegation - QSL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 (Main)