Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al-Sadd vs Umm-Salal

Qatar Qatar

QSL 2025/2026 Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Henrique G.
Assist: Roberto Firmino
20'
Sub
Aholou J. In: Al Hajri S.
Out: Aholou J.
29' Event
Kouassi J. E.
Assist: Cristo

AI Match Summary

The QSL 2025/2026 game between Al-Sadd and Umm-Salal finished 2-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Umm-Salal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Al-Sadd
15%
Draws
21%
Umm-Salal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al-Sadd

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Al-Sadd carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Al-Sadd's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular QSL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 97%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Al-Sadd Clean Sheet 20%
Umm-Salal Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Sadd Umm-Salal
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 21 10
Draws 2 5
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 2.77 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.9 2.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 13, 2026 QSL
Al-Sadd vs Umm-Salal
2:5
Nov 8, 2025 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al-Sadd
3:8
Oct 19, 2025 QSL Cup
Al-Sadd vs Umm-Salal
0:5
Feb 7, 2025 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al-Sadd
0:1
Sep 13, 2024 QSL
Al-Sadd vs Umm-Salal
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Sadd Compare

Top Goalscorer Henrique G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Umm-Salal Compare

Top Goalscorer Kouassi J. E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cristo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Sadd 85 / 100
Umm-Salal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Sadd Umm-Salal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al-Sadd Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 3:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al-Sadd found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Umm-Salal conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 5.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Al-Sadd stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al-Sadd VS Umm-Salal
2.5 Goals Scored 0.86
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.43
88% Over 1.5 86%
75% Over 2.5 71%
63% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Sadd

(Home)
14 Sept
Esteghlal TEH
3 : 0
Al-Sadd
10 Sept
Al Sailiya
3 : 6
Al-Sadd
05 Sept
Al-Sadd
4 : 1
Al-Gharafa
01 Sept
Al-Sadd
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
28 Aug
Qatar SC
2 : 6
Al-Sadd
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Umm-Salal

(Away)
07 Sept
Umm-Salal
1 : 5
Al Khor
30 Aug
Al Mesaimeer
1 : 2
Umm-Salal
25 Aug
Umm-Salal
1 : 1
Qatar U23
08 Aug
Sporting Lokeren
5 : 0
Umm-Salal
01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1
Umm-Salal
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Sadd 22 14 3 5 56:30 45
2 Shamal 22 12 4 6 39:28 40
3 Al Rayyan 22 11 5 6 46:32 38
4 Al-Gharafa 22 11 3 8 36:36 36
5 Al-Duhail 22 9 6 7 40:27 33
6 Al Arabi (Qatar) 22 9 5 8 37:41 32
7 Al Wakra 22 8 6 8 36:34 30
8 Qatar SC 22 8 5 9 32:36 29
9 Al Ahli 22 8 2 12 34:43 26
10 Al Sailiya 22 6 4 12 25:38 22
11 Al-Shahaniya 22 6 3 13 22:39 21
12 Umm-Salal 22 6 2 14 37:56 20
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Relegation - QSL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 (Main)