Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Talaba vs Karbala

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2024/2025 Al Talaba Stadium, Baghdad
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Amutu A.
46' Event
Amutu A.

AI Match Summary

Al Talaba in this Stars League 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Talaba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Al Talaba
35%
Draws
28%
Karbala
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Al Talaba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Al Talaba have won more games recently than Karbala.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on Al Talaba taking it.
  • Regular Stars League 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Al Talaba Clean Sheet 68%
Karbala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Talaba Karbala
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 15 2
Draws 9 5
Losses 6 21
Goals Scored 1.53 0.64
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 0.79
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2025 Stars League
Al Talaba vs Karbala
2:0
Jan 29, 2025 Stars League
Karbala vs Al Talaba
0:2
Jun 4, 2024 Stars League
Karbala vs Al Talaba
0:0
Dec 20, 2023 Stars League
Al Talaba vs Karbala
0:0
Mar 17, 2023 Stars League
Karbala vs Al Talaba
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Talaba Compare

Top Goalscorer Amutu A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71

Karbala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.44

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Talaba 50 / 100
Karbala 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Talaba Karbala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TAL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Talaba's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Karbala let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Al Talaba went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Talaba VS Karbala
1.63 Goals Scored 0.33
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Talaba

(Home)
01 Jun
Al Talaba
1 : 1
Al Karkh
28 May
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Al Talaba
19 May
Al Talaba
1 : 1
Al-Karma
15 May
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
2 : 1
Al Talaba
11 May
Al Mosul
2 : 2
Al Talaba
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Karbala

(Away)
08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1
Karbala
04 Jul
Karbala
2 : 3
Al-Hudod
27 Jun
Karbala
2 : 4
Al Naft
18 Jun
Newroz
1 : 0
Karbala
13 Jun
Karbala
0 : 2
Al-Karma
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Shorta 38 26 9 3 75:23 87
2 Al Zawraa 38 23 8 7 56:28 77
3 Zakho 38 20 11 7 57:25 71
4 Al Talaba 38 18 9 11 40:27 63
5 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 17 9 12 51:43 60
6 Al Naft 38 15 14 9 32:27 59
7 Duhok 38 16 9 13 47:41 57
8 Al-Karma 38 15 11 12 43:35 56
9 Newroz 38 14 11 13 46:41 53
10 Al-Qassim 38 13 13 12 43:43 52
11 Naft Missan 38 14 9 15 42:46 51
12 Erbil 38 15 5 18 49:61 50
13 Al Kahraba 38 12 13 13 39:41 49
14 Al Najaf 38 11 13 14 37:36 46
15 Al Karkh 38 12 10 16 40:49 46
16 Al Minaa 38 11 10 17 39:44 43
17 Diyala 38 10 11 17 31:50 41
18 Naft Al-Basra 38 8 9 21 32:57 33
19 Al-Hudod 38 8 2 28 37:79 26
20 Karbala 38 4 10 24 26:66 22
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2025/2026 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2024/2025 (Relegation)