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Al Watan vs Asaria - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Libya Libya

Premier League 2024/2025
Al Watan Logo

Al Watan

1 - 0
FT
Asaria Logo

Asaria

Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Abouhleiga M.
Assist: Bannouba W.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2024/2025 game between Al Watan and Asaria finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Watan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Al Watan
20%
Draws
36%
Asaria
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Watan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Asaria haven't matched Al Watan's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Al Watan a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Al Watan Clean Sheet 16%
Asaria Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Watan Asaria
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 4
Draws 9 11
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 0.97 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2025 Premier League
Asaria vs Al Watan
2:2
Dec 31, 2024 Premier League
Al Watan vs Asaria
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Watan Compare

Top Goalscorer Abouhleiga M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Asaria Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Watan 41 / 100
Asaria 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Watan Asaria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Asaria conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Al Watan's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Recent resilience: Al Watan stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Watan VS Asaria
0.75 Goals Scored 2
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 100%
13% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Watan

(Home)
23 Apr
Al Watan
4 : 3
Al Qadisiyah
18 Apr
Asswehly
0 : 1
Al Watan
13 Apr
Al Watan
0 : 1
Al Khmes
09 Apr
Abu Salim
1 : 0
Al Watan
14 Mar
Al Watan
0 : 3
Al Ahly Tripoli
Page 1 of 6

Asaria

(Away)
11 Apr
Asaria
2 : 1
Al Ittihad Misurata
15 Mar
Al Malaab El Libby
0 : 0
Asaria
08 Mar
Asaria
1 : 2
Abi Al Ashar
27 Feb
Al Khmes
2 : 0
Asaria
22 Feb
Asaria
2 : 2
Al Watan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Nasr 16 9 5 2 20:9 32
2 Al Akhdar 16 9 4 3 25:11 31
3 Al Tahaddi 16 6 7 3 20:14 25
4 Khaleej Sirte 16 5 5 6 17:19 19
5 Al Suqoor 16 5 4 7 16:20 19
6 Al Anwar 16 5 4 7 18:26 19
7 Al Borouq 16 3 9 4 14:15 18
8 Al Ansar 16 4 2 10 15:26 14
9 Wefaq Ajdabiya 16 4 4 8 9:14 13
Promotion - Premier League 2024/2025 (Winners stage)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ahly Benghazi 14 11 1 2 31:6 34
2 Al Hilal Benghazi 14 11 1 2 30:12 34
3 Al Sadaqa 14 7 3 4 16:13 24
4 Al Taawun 14 6 4 4 19:14 22
5 Al Andalus 14 5 3 6 17:18 18
6 Al Murooj SC 14 3 3 8 14:25 12
7 Al Branes 14 2 2 10 11:28 8
8 Al Mahdia 14 1 3 10 8:30 6
Promotion - Premier League 2024/2025 (Winners stage)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Asswehly 16 12 4 0 36:12 40
2 Olympic Azzaweya 16 11 4 1 28:13 37
3 Al Ittihad 16 8 4 4 24:10 28
4 Al Majd 16 6 3 7 25:29 21
5 Shabab Al Ghar 16 4 8 4 18:18 20
6 Abu Salim 16 6 2 8 20:24 20
7 Al Bashaer 16 4 5 7 19:21 17
8 Al Tirsana 16 3 6 7 22:22 15
9 Al Nahda 16 0 0 16 5:48 -3
Promotion - Premier League 2024/2025 (Winners stage)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ahly Tripoli 16 13 3 0 38:4 42
2 Al Madina 16 10 4 2 27:14 34
3 Al Ittihad Misurata 16 6 5 5 14:14 23
4 Al Watan 16 5 5 6 19:22 19
5 Al Malaab El Libby 16 3 9 4 13:15 18
6 Al Khmes 16 5 1 10 11:20 16
7 Abi Al Ashar 16 3 6 7 10:18 15
8 Al Dahra 16 3 6 7 11:22 15
9 Asaria 16 3 3 10 13:27 12
Promotion - Premier League 2024/2025 (Winners stage)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)