Sport Picks

Asia

AFC Champions League 2 2025/2026 Al-Zawraa Stadium, Baghdad

Al Zawraa

2 - 1

Istiqlol Dushanbe

Our Tip

Match Events

Abdulkareem H.

34'

Kadhim H. F.

53'

Tomiwa Gbadamosi I.

(Penalty)

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The AFC Champions League 2 2025/2026 game between Al Zawraa and Istiqlol Dushanbe finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Zawraa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Al Zawraa

39%

Draws

30%

Istiqlol Dushanbe

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Istiqlol Dushanbe come out ahead of Al Zawraa on wins alone.
39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
European nights carry their own weight — this AFC Champions League 2 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%

Al Zawraa Clean Sheet 20%

Istiqlol Dushanbe Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Al Zawraa	Istiqlol Dushanbe
Matches Played	31	29
Wins	14	19
Draws	10	6
Losses	7	4
Goals Scored	1.75	1.25
Goals Conceded	0.88	0.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 5, 2025 AFC Champions League 2

Al Zawraa vs Istiqlol Dushanbe

2:1

Oct 22, 2025 AFC Champions League 2

Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Al Zawraa

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Zawraa Compare

Top Goalscorer Abdulkareem H.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

Istiqlol Dushanbe Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Zawraa 32 / 100

Istiqlol Dushanbe 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Al Zawraa Istiqlol Dushanbe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IST Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Zawraa found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (31 games).

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Istiqlol Dushanbe's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Al Zawraa went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Zawraa VS Istiqlol Dushanbe

1.75 Goals Scored 1.25

0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63

88% Over 1.5 75%

50% Over 2.5 38%

25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Zawraa

(Home)

01 Jun

Al Najaf

1 : 0

Al Zawraa

27 May

Al Zawraa

0 : 1

Al Naft

20 May

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

2 : 1

Al Zawraa

14 May

Al Zawraa

1 : 1

Al-Qassim

10 May

Al Minaa

0 : 2

Al Zawraa

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Istiqlol Dushanbe

(Away)

28 Jun

Sardor Tursunzoda

0 : 1

Istiqlol Dushanbe

14 Jun

Istaravshan

1 : 2

Istiqlol Dushanbe

23 May

Istiqlol Dushanbe

1 : 2

Regar-TadAZ

16 May

Eskhata

0 : 0

Istiqlol Dushanbe

09 May

Istiqlol Dushanbe

2 : 0

Barkchi Hisor

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