Sport Picks
Alacranes de Durango vs Leones Negros - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango 
Match Events
6'
6'
Sub
Gonzalez J. In: Morales L.
Out: Gonzalez J.
11'
11'
Hernandez S. A.
Assist: Razo L.
31'
31'
Escalante J.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX game between Alacranes de Durango and Leones Negros finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leones Negros.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Leones Negros haven't matched Alacranes de Durango's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Alacranes de Durango's way, sitting at 42%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Alacranes de Durango Clean Sheet 16%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alacranes de Durango | Leones Negros |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 16 | 9 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 6 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.59 | 1.52 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.76 | 1.76 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 23, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Leones Negros
1:2
Feb 8, 2023 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Alacranes de Durango
1:0
Aug 17, 2022 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Leones Negros
1:0
Feb 20, 2011 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Alacranes de Durango
0:0
Sep 12, 2010 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Leones Negros
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alacranes de Durango Compare
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Leones Negros Compare
Top Goalscorer Hernandez S. A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Razo L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alacranes de Durango 41 / 100
Leones Negros 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alacranes de Durango Leones Negros
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Leones Negros's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.
Alacranes de Durango's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.
Alacranes de Durango went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Alacranes de Durango VS Leones Negros
0.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Alacranes de Durango
(Home) 04 Oct
Alacranes de Durango
4 : 2 Zacatecas Mineros
27 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
0 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
18 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
2 : 0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Alacranes de Durango
4 : 2 Zacatecas Mineros
18 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
2 : 0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
23 Aug
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 2 Leones Negros
08 Aug
Alacranes de Durango
0 : 3 Piratas
Page 1 of 4
Leones Negros
(Away) 04 Oct
Leones Negros
6 : 3 Dorados de Sinaloa
26 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 2 Leones Negros
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 2 Leones Negros
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
23 Aug
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 2 Leones Negros
02 Aug
Cancun
0 : 2 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27:16 | 23 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Morelia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 3 | Atletico La Paz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24:13 | 20 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26:21 | 19 |
| 5 | Piratas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16:10 | 18 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancun | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19:15 | 17 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11:11 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 16 |
| 10 | Tapatio | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:15 | 14 |
| 11 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 13 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10:23 | 13 |
| 13 | Tlaxcala | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19:23 | 12 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | 11 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8:29 | 6 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
