Sport Picks

Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A Estadio Francisco Zarco

Alacranes de Durango

2 - 1

Mineros de Fresnillo

Our Tip

Match Events

10'

Vazquez D.

19'

57'

Vazquez D.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Alacranes de Durango in this Liga Premier Serie A matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alacranes de Durango.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%

Alacranes de Durango

33%

Draws

40%

Mineros de Fresnillo

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Mineros de Fresnillo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Form's been kind to Alacranes de Durango lately — more wins on the board than Mineros de Fresnillo.
Model gives Mineros de Fresnillo a 40% chance of winning this.
Regular Liga Premier Serie A form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Alacranes de Durango have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 38%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%

Alacranes de Durango Clean Sheet 18%

Mineros de Fresnillo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Alacranes de Durango	Mineros de Fresnillo
Matches Played	32	30
Wins	22	12
Draws	6	6
Losses	4	12
Goals Scored	2.5	2
Goals Conceded	0.63	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	2.50	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.63	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A

Alacranes de Durango vs Mineros de Fresnillo

Possession: 51% - 57% Cards: 4 - 3

2:1

Nov 22, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A

Mineros de Fresnillo vs Alacranes de Durango

Possession: 46% - 53% Cards: 4 - 3

1:6

Feb 18, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A

Alacranes de Durango vs Mineros de Fresnillo

Possession: 41% - 55% Cards: 0 - 0

4:2

Oct 11, 2024 Liga Premier Serie A

Mineros de Fresnillo vs Alacranes de Durango

Possession: 48% - 54% Cards: 2 - 3

2:3

Apr 20, 2024 Liga Premier Serie A

Alacranes de Durango vs Mineros de Fresnillo

Possession: 44% - 46% Cards: 1 - 4

4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alacranes de Durango Compare

Top Goalscorer Vazquez D.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.92

Avg xA / game 1.25

Mineros de Fresnillo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alacranes de Durango 28 / 100

Mineros de Fresnillo 38 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Alacranes de Durango Mineros de Fresnillo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MIN Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alacranes de Durango found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (32 games).

These sides typically produce 5.20 goals when they meet.

Mineros de Fresnillo has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Alacranes de Durango stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alacranes de Durango VS Mineros de Fresnillo

2.5 Goals Scored 2

0.63 Goals Conceded 1.38

88% Over 1.5 88%

75% Over 2.5 63%

38% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alacranes de Durango	26	21	2	3	71:16	74
2	Tigres de Alica	26	17	3	6	46:25	56
3	Cimarrones de Sonora	26	15	7	4	46:19	54
4	Leones Negros 2	26	16	2	8	42:26	53
5	Tecos	26	14	4	8	49:34	49
6	Tritones Vallarta	26	15	1	10	32:27	46
7	Mineros de Fresnillo	26	11	4	11	40:41	39
8	Los Cabos United	26	11	3	12	37:40	37
9	Guerreros de Autlan	26	8	5	13	38:42	32
10	UA Zacatecas	26	8	4	14	32:49	29
11	Ensenada FC	26	8	2	16	30:55	28
12	Reboceros de La Piedad	26	7	1	18	39:66	23
13	Zapotlanejo	26	6	1	19	39:73	21
14	Colima FC	26	4	3	19	24:52	17

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Apodaca	26	21	2	3	47:19	66
2	FC Santiago	26	14	7	5	43:21	51
3	Zacatepec	26	12	8	6	29:15	45
4	Halcones de Zapopan	26	11	6	9	44:27	44
5	Calor De San Pedro	26	12	7	7	37:26	44
6	Gavilanes de Matamoros	26	12	5	9	31:22	44
7	Lobos ULMX	26	11	6	9	33:28	40
8	Correcaminos 2	26	9	7	10	27:25	36
9	Chilpancingo	26	9	8	9	33:41	35
10	Cordobes FC	26	8	6	12	29:30	30
11	Zitacuaro	26	6	10	10	22:31	28
12	CS Canamy	26	5	8	13	33:53	26
13	Ciervos	26	4	4	18	20:50	18
14	Atletico Hidalgo	26	4	4	18	22:62	16

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Racing de Veracruz	24	21	3	0	55:9	71
2	Deportiva Venados	24	15	4	5	61:25	52
3	Tapachula	24	13	0	11	51:35	44
4	Celaya	24	12	4	8	42:32	43
5	Inter Playa Del Carmen	24	13	4	7	35:28	42
6	Montaneses	24	12	2	10	35:28	38
7	Pioneros	24	10	3	11	35:35	35
8	Jaguares De Chiapas	24	9	4	11	33:32	34
9	Heroes de Zaci	24	10	2	12	33:46	34
10	Chapulineros	24	5	8	11	21:33	23
11	Canoneros FC	24	7	1	16	25:49	22
12	Neza FC	24	5	2	17	25:73	19
13	Dragones Toluca	24	4	3	17	21:47	17