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Alagoinhas vs Barcelona FC

Brazil Brazil

Baiano Carneiro
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Alagoinhas play Barcelona FC in the Baiano. It looks like a close match. Recently, Alagoinhas averaged 0.55 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. Barcelona FC averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Alagoinhas won 1, Barcelona FC won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 15, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Alagoinhas and 1.19 for Barcelona FC. This points to a Barcelona FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Alagoinhas
28%
Draws
47%
Barcelona FC
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Barcelona FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Alagoinhas picked up more points recently compared to Barcelona FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 55%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Alagoinhas Clean Sheet 20%
Barcelona FC Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 50%
Second Half Goal 52%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alagoinhas Barcelona FC
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 3 5
Draws 8 12
Losses 18 13
Goals Scored 0.55 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 15, 2026 Baiano
Alagoinhas vs Barcelona FC
0:1
Jan 28, 2025 Baiano
Barcelona FC vs Alagoinhas
1:0
Mar 3, 2024 Baiano
Alagoinhas vs Barcelona FC
1:0
Jan 12, 2023 Baiano
Barcelona FC vs Alagoinhas
1:1
Jan 27, 2022 Baiano
Alagoinhas vs Barcelona FC
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alagoinhas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Barcelona FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Gianlucas
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alagoinhas 27 / 100
Barcelona FC 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alagoinhas Barcelona FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Barcelona FC or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +47%
5.88
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.9%
3.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Alagoinhas attacking → ← attacking Barcelona FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alagoinhas scored in 41% of their last 29 games.

Barcelona FC let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Alagoinhas went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Barcelona FC lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

17 Points in last 5 27
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.50
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Bahia972026:923
2Vitoria944113:416
3Jacuipense934211:1013
4Juazeirense93427:913
5Jequie933315:1312
6Porto-BA925210:1211
7Barcelona FC92437:1510
8Galicia93067:149
9Bahia de Feira923411:129
10Alagoinhas90365:143