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Alajuelense vs Guadalupe

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto, Alajuela
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Sub
Borges C. In: Parkins R.
Out: Borges C.
19'
Bonilla B.
23'
Ruiz J.

AI Match Summary

The Primera Division 2025/2026 game between Alajuelense and Guadalupe finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Alajuelense
20%
Draws
10%
Guadalupe
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alajuelense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Guadalupe haven't matched Alajuelense's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Alajuelense's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Alajuelense Clean Sheet 20%
Guadalupe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alajuelense Guadalupe
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 14 4
Draws 7 7
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 1.66 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.13 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Guadalupe
1:1
Jan 28, 2026 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs Alajuelense
1:3
Sep 21, 2025 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs Alajuelense
0:0
Aug 4, 2025 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Guadalupe
1:0
May 7, 2023 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs Alajuelense
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alajuelense Compare

Top Goalscorer Pinar F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Guadalupe Compare

Top Goalscorer Demetrius T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alajuelense 85 / 100
Guadalupe 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alajuelense Guadalupe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alajuelense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alajuelense found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (32 games).

Defensive concern: Guadalupe conceded in 90% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Alajuelense has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Alajuelense VS Guadalupe
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alajuelense

(Home)
20 Sept
Alajuelense
5 : 0
Inter San Carlos
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
14 Sept
Cartagines
3 : 1
Alajuelense
11 Sept
Marathon
2 : 2
Alajuelense
06 Sept
Alajuelense
0 : 2
Saprissa
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Guadalupe

(Away)
19 Sept
Guadalupe
0 : 3
FC Moravia
13 Sept
Santa Ana
2 : 1
Guadalupe
06 Sept
Guadalupe
0 : 1
CS Uruguay
29 Aug
Cariari Pococi
3 : 3
Guadalupe
25 Aug
Guadalupe
0 : 1
Carmelita
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Herediano 18 12 2 4 26:10 38
2 Saprissa 18 10 4 4 34:19 34
3 Liberia 18 10 3 5 24:18 33
4 Cartagines 18 10 2 6 26:20 32
5 Alajuelense 18 7 5 6 28:20 26
6 Sporting FC 18 6 4 8 16:21 22
7 San Carlos 18 6 3 9 21:25 21
8 Puntarenas FC 18 4 4 10 22:29 16
9 Zeledon 18 2 8 8 19:30 14
10 Guadalupe 18 3 5 10 13:37 14
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)