Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Alajuelense vs Guadalupe

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto, Alajuela
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Sub
Borges C. In: Parkins R.
Out: Borges C.
19'
Bonilla B.
23'
Ruiz J.

AI Match Summary

The Primera Division 2025/2026 game between Alajuelense and Guadalupe finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Alajuelense
6%
Draws
4%
Guadalupe
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Alajuelense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Guadalupe haven't matched Alajuelense's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Alajuelense's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Alajuelense Clean Sheet 20%
Guadalupe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alajuelense Guadalupe
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 4
Draws 10 9
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 1.88 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.13 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Guadalupe
1:1
Jan 28, 2026 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs Alajuelense
1:3
Sep 21, 2025 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs Alajuelense
0:0
Aug 4, 2025 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Guadalupe
1:0
May 7, 2023 Primera Division
Guadalupe vs Alajuelense
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alajuelense Compare

Top Goalscorer Pinar F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Guadalupe Compare

Top Goalscorer Demetrius T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alajuelense 85 / 100
Guadalupe 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alajuelense Guadalupe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LDA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alajuelense found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Guadalupe conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Alajuelense has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Alajuelense VS Guadalupe
1.88 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Alajuelense

(Home)
26 Jul
Sporting FC
1 : 1
Alajuelense
12 Jul
Alajuelense
0 : 1
Herediano
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1
Alajuelense
24 Apr
Alajuelense
5 : 2
Puntarenas FC
19 Apr
Alajuelense
1 : 1
Saprissa
Page 1 of 6

Guadalupe

(Away)
26 Apr
Guadalupe
0 : 5
Cartagines
23 Apr
Saprissa
5 : 0
Guadalupe
18 Apr
Guadalupe
1 : 0
Zeledon
13 Apr
San Carlos
4 : 0
Guadalupe
06 Apr
Alajuelense
1 : 1
Guadalupe
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Herediano18122426:1038
2Saprissa18104434:1934
3Liberia18103524:1833
4Cartagines18102626:2032
5Alajuelense1875628:2026
6Sporting FC1864816:2122
7San Carlos1863921:2521
8Puntarenas FC18441022:2916
9Zeledon1828819:3014
10Guadalupe18351013:3714
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)