Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Alajuelense vs Herediano

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Super Cup Estadio José Rafael Fello Meza, Cartago
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Sub
Cruz A. In: Juarez E.
Out: Cruz A.
46'
Sub
Hernandez A. In: Zaldivar A.
Out: Hernandez A.
46'
Sub
Parkins R. In: Borges C.
Out: Parkins R.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Alajuelense
15%
Draws
39%
Herediano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alajuelense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Herediano lately — more wins on the board than Alajuelense.
  • Alajuelense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Herediano arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Herediano, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Alajuelense Clean Sheet 68%
Herediano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alajuelense Herediano
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 15
Draws 6 4
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.63 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 10, 2026 Primera Division
Herediano vs Alajuelense
0:3
Jul 12, 2026 Super Cup
Alajuelense vs Herediano
0:1
Mar 22, 2026 Primera Division
Herediano vs Alajuelense
2:1
Feb 8, 2026 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Herediano
1:1
Oct 17, 2025 Primera Division
Herediano vs Alajuelense
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alajuelense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Herediano Compare

Top Goalscorer Aguilar E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alajuelense 95 / 100
Herediano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alajuelense Herediano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alajuelense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alajuelense found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Alajuelense remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Herediano lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alajuelense VS Herediano
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Alajuelense

(Home)
20 Sept
Alajuelense
5 : 0
Inter San Carlos
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
14 Sept
Cartagines
3 : 1
Alajuelense
11 Sept
Marathon
2 : 2
Alajuelense
06 Sept
Alajuelense
0 : 2
Saprissa
Page 1 of 6

Herediano

(Away)
20 Sept
Saprissa
2 : 0
Herediano
13 Sept
Escorpiones
0 : 2
Herediano
05 Sept
Herediano
2 : 3
Zeledon
30 Aug
Cartagines
1 : 0
Herediano
27 Aug
Herediano
2 : 1
Antigua
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Alajuelense 0
Herediano 1