Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Alajuelense vs Herediano

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Super Cup Estadio José Rafael Fello Meza, Cartago
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Sub
Cruz A. In: Juarez E.
Out: Cruz A.
46'
Sub
Hernandez A. In: Zaldivar A.
Out: Hernandez A.
46'
Sub
Parkins R. In: Borges C.
Out: Parkins R.

AI Match Summary

Herediano in this Super Cup tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Alajuelense
20%
Draws
38%
Herediano
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alajuelense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Herediano lately — more wins on the board than Alajuelense.
  • Alajuelense are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Herediano arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Herediano, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 30%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Alajuelense Clean Sheet 20%
Herediano Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alajuelense Herediano
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 9 19
Draws 8 4
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.25 1
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Super Cup
Alajuelense vs Herediano
0:1
Mar 22, 2026 Primera Division
Herediano vs Alajuelense
2:1
Feb 8, 2026 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Herediano
1:1
Oct 17, 2025 Primera Division
Herediano vs Alajuelense
1:3
Aug 10, 2025 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Herediano
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alajuelense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Herediano Compare

Top Goalscorer Aguilar E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alajuelense 42 / 100
Herediano 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alajuelense Herediano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alajuelense found the back of the net in 85% of recent matches (27 games).

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Alajuelense remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Herediano let in goals in 45% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Alajuelense VS Herediano
1.25 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.38
63% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Alajuelense

(Home)
12 Jul
Alajuelense
0 : 1
Herediano
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1
Alajuelense
24 Apr
Alajuelense
5 : 2
Puntarenas FC
19 Apr
Alajuelense
1 : 1
Saprissa
12 Apr
Sporting FC
0 : 2
Alajuelense
Page 1 of 6

Herediano

(Away)
24 Jul
Herediano
1 : 1
Puntarenas FC
18 Jul
Herediano
1 : 0
Saprissa
12 Jul
Alajuelense
0 : 1
Herediano
17 May
Herediano
2 : 0
Saprissa
14 May
Saprissa
2 : 1
Herediano
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Alajuelense0
Herediano1