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Alajuelense vs Puntarenas FC

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto, Alajuela
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Cisneros R.
31' Event
Vargas K.
36' Event
Rodriguez D.

AI Match Summary

The Primera Division 2025/2026 game between Alajuelense and Puntarenas FC finished 5-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alajuelense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Alajuelense
6%
Draws
4%
Puntarenas FC
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Alajuelense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Alajuelense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Alajuelense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Alajuelense Clean Sheet 20%
Puntarenas FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alajuelense Puntarenas FC
Matches Played 32 32
Wins 14 7
Draws 8 11
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.88 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.25 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2026 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Puntarenas FC
5:2
Mar 1, 2026 Primera Division
Puntarenas FC vs Alajuelense
2:0
Sep 27, 2025 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Puntarenas FC
2:2
Aug 17, 2025 Primera Division
Puntarenas FC vs Alajuelense
0:0
May 15, 2025 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Puntarenas FC
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alajuelense Compare

Top Goalscorer Cisneros R.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Vargas K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Puntarenas FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Samadian F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alajuelense 85 / 100
Puntarenas FC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alajuelense Puntarenas FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LDA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Alajuelense scored in 88% of their last 32 outings.

Puntarenas FC has conceded goals in 72% of their last 32 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Alajuelense went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alajuelense VS Puntarenas FC
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alajuelense

(Home)
12 Jul
Alajuelense
0 : 1
Herediano
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1
Alajuelense
24 Apr
Alajuelense
5 : 2
Puntarenas FC
19 Apr
Alajuelense
1 : 1
Saprissa
12 Apr
Sporting FC
0 : 2
Alajuelense
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Puntarenas FC

(Away)
24 Jul
Herediano
1 : 1
Puntarenas FC
26 Apr
Puntarenas FC
1 : 3
Saprissa
24 Apr
Alajuelense
5 : 2
Puntarenas FC
19 Apr
Puntarenas FC
1 : 2
Sporting FC
12 Apr
Zeledon
3 : 3
Puntarenas FC
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Herediano18122426:1038
2Saprissa18104434:1934
3Liberia18103524:1833
4Cartagines18102626:2032
5Alajuelense1875628:2026
6Sporting FC1864816:2122
7San Carlos1863921:2521
8Puntarenas FC18441022:2916
9Zeledon1828819:3014
10Guadalupe18351013:3714
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)