Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Alaves vs Barcelona

Spain Spain

LaLiga 2025/2026 Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Diabate I.
Assist: Blanco A.
46'
Rashford M.
62'
Sub
Bardghji R. In: Torres F.
Out: Bardghji R.

AI Match Summary

Alaves in this LaLiga 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alaves.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Alaves
40%
Draws
29%
Barcelona
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Alaves haven't matched Barcelona's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular LaLiga 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Barcelona have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Alaves Clean Sheet 13%
Barcelona Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alaves Barcelona
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 23
Draws 8 1
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.25 2
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 LaLiga
Alaves vs Barcelona
1:0
Nov 29, 2025 LaLiga
Barcelona vs Alaves
3:1
Feb 2, 2025 LaLiga
Barcelona vs Alaves
1:0
Oct 6, 2024 LaLiga
Alaves vs Barcelona
0:3
Feb 3, 2024 LaLiga
Alaves vs Barcelona
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alaves Compare

Top Goalscorer Diabate I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Barcelona Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alaves 31 / 100
Barcelona 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alaves Barcelona

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alaves found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (31 games).

Barcelona let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Alaves stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alaves VS Barcelona
1.25 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alaves

(Home)
25 Jul
Girona
0 : 1
Alaves
18 Jul
Alaves
1 : 1
Eibar
23 May
Alaves
1 : 2
Rayo Vallecano
17 May
Real Oviedo
0 : 1
Alaves
13 May
Alaves
1 : 0
Barcelona
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Barcelona

(Away)
24 Jul
Barcelona
4 : 1
CE Europa
23 May
Valencia
3 : 1
Barcelona
17 May
Barcelona
3 : 1
Betis
13 May
Alaves
1 : 0
Barcelona
10 May
Barcelona
2 : 0
Real Madrid
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Barcelona38311695:3694
2Real Madrid38275677:3586
3Villarreal382261072:4672
4Atl. Madrid382161162:4469
5Betis381515859:4860
6Celta Vigo3814121253:4854
7Getafe381561732:3851
8Rayo Vallecano3812141241:4450
9Valencia3813101546:5549
10Real Sociedad3811131459:6146
11Espanyol3812101643:5546
12Ath Bilbao381361943:5845
13Sevilla381271946:6043
14Alaves3811101744:5643
15Elche3810131549:5743
16Levante381191847:6142
17Osasuna381191844:5042
18Mallorca381191847:5742
19Girona389141539:5541
20Real Oviedo386112126:6029
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 (Main)