Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Alaves vs Castellon

World World

Club Friendly Estadi Municipal d'Olot, Olot
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Boye L.
(Penalty)
28' Event
Boye L.
33'
Sub
Sienra A. In: Albert J.
Out: Sienra A.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Alaves and Castellon finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alaves.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Alaves
20%
Draws
40%
Castellon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Very High Confidence
  • Alaves haven't matched Castellon's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Alaves a 70% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Alaves Clean Sheet 20%
Castellon Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alaves Castellon
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 13
Draws 8 9
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.25 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.5 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 31, 2026 Club Friendly
Alaves vs Castellon
3:0
Jul 26, 2025 Club Friendly
Alaves vs Castellon
2:1
May 3, 2009 LaLiga2
Alaves vs Castellon
0:1
Nov 30, 2008 LaLiga2
Castellon vs Alaves
0:1
Mar 29, 2008 LaLiga2
Alaves vs Castellon
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alaves Compare

Top Goalscorer Boye L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diaz M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Castellon Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alaves 67 / 100
Castellon 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alaves Castellon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Alaves scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Castellon has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Alaves stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alaves VS Castellon
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Alaves

(Home)
07 Aug
Racing Santander
1 : 2
Alaves
31 Jul
Alaves
3 : 0
Castellon
25 Jul
Girona
0 : 1
Alaves
18 Jul
Alaves
1 : 1
Eibar
23 May
Alaves
1 : 2
Rayo Vallecano
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Castellon

(Away)
07 Aug
Hercules
0 : 1
Castellon
31 Jul
Alaves
3 : 0
Castellon
29 Jul
Girona
3 : 3
Castellon
25 Jul
Valencia
1 : 2
Castellon
18 Jul
Castellon
2 : 0
Sabadell
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