Sport Picks
Alaves vs Villarreal
Spain
LaLiga 2025/2026 Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz 
Match Events
36'
36'
Boye L.
40'
40'
Marin R.
Own Goal
50'
50'
Enriquez Y.
AI Match Summary
The LaLiga 2025/2026 game between Alaves and Villarreal finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
40%
29%
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
66%
/ Medium Confidence
- Villarreal carry the better recent record into this one.
- 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular LaLiga 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Alaves Clean Sheet 14%
Villarreal Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alaves | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 28 |
| Wins | 12 | 14 |
| Draws | 8 | 4 |
| Losses | 11 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 2.25 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 2.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 1.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 13, 2026 LaLiga
Alaves vs Villarreal
1:1
Jan 10, 2026 LaLiga
Villarreal vs Alaves
3:1
Mar 8, 2025 LaLiga
Alaves vs Villarreal
1:0
Nov 9, 2024 LaLiga
Villarreal vs Alaves
3:0
Feb 10, 2024 LaLiga
Alaves vs Villarreal
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alaves Compare
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Villarreal Compare
Top Goalscorer Pepe N.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alaves 31 / 100
Villarreal 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alaves Villarreal
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Alaves's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 31 recent games.
Villarreal has conceded goals in 93% of their last 28 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.
Alaves went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Alaves VS Villarreal
1 Goals Scored 2.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Alaves
(Home) 25 Jul
Girona
0 : 1 Alaves
18 Jul
Alaves
1 : 1 Eibar
23 May
Alaves
1 : 2 Rayo Vallecano
17 May
Real Oviedo
0 : 1 Alaves
13 May
Alaves
1 : 0 Barcelona
Page 1 of 7
18 Jul
Alaves
1 : 1 Eibar
23 May
Alaves
1 : 2 Rayo Vallecano
13 May
Alaves
1 : 0 Barcelona
02 May
Alaves
2 : 4 Ath Bilbao
25 Apr
Alaves
2 : 1 Mallorca
Page 1 of 4
Villarreal
(Away) 29 Jul
Villarreal
2 : 1 Como
29 Jul
Al-Ula
0 : 3 Villarreal
25 Jul
PSV
1 : 3 Villarreal
17 Jul
Benfica
2 : 0 Villarreal
24 May
Villarreal
5 : 1 Atl. Madrid
Page 1 of 6
29 Jul
Al-Ula
0 : 3 Villarreal
25 Jul
PSV
1 : 3 Villarreal
17 Jul
Benfica
2 : 0 Villarreal
17 May
Rayo Vallecano
2 : 0 Villarreal
10 May
Mallorca
1 : 1 Villarreal
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 95:36 | 94 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 77:35 | 86 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 72:46 | 72 |
| 4 | Atl. Madrid | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 62:44 | 69 |
| 5 | Betis | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 59:48 | 60 |
| 6 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 53:48 | 54 |
| 7 | Getafe | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 32:38 | 51 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 41:44 | 50 |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 46:55 | 49 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 59:61 | 46 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 43:55 | 46 |
| 12 | Ath Bilbao | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 43:58 | 45 |
| 13 | Sevilla | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 46:60 | 43 |
| 14 | Alaves | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 44:56 | 43 |
| 15 | Elche | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 49:57 | 43 |
| 16 | Levante | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:61 | 42 |
| 17 | Osasuna | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 44:50 | 42 |
| 18 | Mallorca | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:57 | 42 |
| 19 | Girona | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 39:55 | 41 |
| 20 | Real Oviedo | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 26:60 | 29 |
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 (Main)
