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Alba vs Ligorna

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Miracoli L.
20' Event
Miracoli L.
45' Event
Giraudo F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2023/2024 game between Alba and Ligorna finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ligorna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Alba
20%
Draws
40%
Ligorna
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ligorna come out ahead of Alba on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Alba Clean Sheet 19%
Ligorna Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alba Ligorna
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 8 20
Draws 5 6
Losses 17 5
Goals Scored 0.97 2
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Alba vs Ligorna
1:2
Nov 12, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Ligorna vs Alba
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alba Compare

Top Goalscorer Giraudo F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Ligorna Compare

Top Goalscorer Miracoli L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.13
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alba 36 / 100
Ligorna 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alba Ligorna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ligorna Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alba found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Ligorna let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Alba stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Ligorna
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alba

(Home)
12 May
Derthona FbC
3 : 0
Alba
05 May
Pinerolo
0 : 2
Alba
28 Apr
Alba
0 : 1
Derthona FbC
21 Apr
PDHA
1 : 2
Alba
14 Apr
Alba
3 : 3
AC Chieri
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Ligorna

(Away)
20 Sept
Celle Varazze
0 : 2
Ligorna
16 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 3
Derthona FbC
13 Sept
AS Biellese
3 : 1
Ligorna
06 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 2
Sanremese
17 May
Ligorna
5 : 3
Varese FC
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alcione Milano 38 23 10 5 70:27 79
2 Chisola 38 21 9 8 64:37 72
3 Varese FC 38 18 12 8 49:33 66
4 Vado 38 17 14 7 51:28 65
5 NovaRomentin 38 18 11 9 58:38 65
6 Bra 38 18 11 9 47:30 65
7 Ligorna 38 17 12 9 44:37 63
8 Asti Calcio 38 16 11 11 42:33 59
9 Albenga 38 15 15 8 51:33 58
10 Sanremese 38 13 13 12 34:33 52
11 Fezzanese 38 14 9 15 42:50 51
12 Gozzano 38 10 15 13 35:38 45
13 Lavagnese 38 11 11 16 46:47 44
14 Vogherese 38 10 12 16 42:57 42
15 Derthona FbC 38 9 14 15 34:52 41
16 AC Chieri 38 8 15 15 39:52 39
17 Pinerolo 38 8 13 17 25:44 37
18 Alba 38 10 7 21 39:63 37
19 PDHA 38 5 7 26 25:63 22
20 Borgosesia Calcio 38 5 7 26 25:67 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2023/2024 (Play Out)