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AlbinoLeffe vs Novara - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A AlbinoLeffe, Zanica
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
03:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AlbinoLeffe host Novara in the Serie C - Group A. Little to choose between these two on current form. Novara have shipped 1.14 goals a game lately, while AlbinoLeffe have conceded 1.07 and scored 1.59. Head-to-head, AlbinoLeffe have won 1 to Novara's 1, with 3 draws. They last met on Feb 11, 2026, ending 2:2. xG projections (1.38 - 1.00) back AlbinoLeffe to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Under 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
AlbinoLeffe
30%
Draws
29%
Novara
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AlbinoLeffe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Novara haven't matched AlbinoLeffe's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans AlbinoLeffe's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Serie C - Group A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
AlbinoLeffe Clean Sheet 68%
Novara Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AlbinoLeffe Novara
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 10
Draws 7 8
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.59 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Novara vs AlbinoLeffe
2:2
Sep 28, 2025 Serie C - Group A
AlbinoLeffe vs Novara
3:2
Mar 2, 2025 Serie C - Group A
AlbinoLeffe vs Novara
1:1
Oct 19, 2024 Serie C - Group A
Novara vs AlbinoLeffe
2:0
Mar 10, 2024 Serie C - Group A
AlbinoLeffe vs Novara
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AlbinoLeffe 68 / 100
Novara 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AlbinoLeffe Novara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AlbinoLeffe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: AlbinoLeffe scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Novara let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

AlbinoLeffe has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

AlbinoLeffe VS Novara
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

AlbinoLeffe

(Home)
10 Oct
Lumezzane
3 : 2
AlbinoLeffe
03 Oct
Cittadella
1 : 2
AlbinoLeffe
27 Sept
AlbinoLeffe
1 : 1
Alcione Milano
20 Sept
Juventus U23
3 : 5
AlbinoLeffe
17 Sept
AlbinoLeffe
1 : 2
Arzignano
Page 1 of 6

Novara

(Away)
10 Oct
Novara
0 : 2
Cittadella
04 Oct
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1 : 2
Novara
26 Sept
Novara
0 : 2
Ospitaletto
20 Sept
Novara
2 : 2
Carpi
17 Sept
Lumezzane
0 : 0
Novara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cittadella 9 8 0 1 16:4 24
2 Union Brescia 9 5 4 0 16:6 19
3 Ospitaletto 9 5 3 1 15:6 18
4 Arzignano 9 5 2 2 14:10 17
5 Trento 9 4 5 0 12:5 17
6 Treviso 9 3 4 2 8:7 13
7 Desenzano Calvina 9 3 4 2 8:7 13
8 AlbinoLeffe 9 3 3 3 14:13 12
9 Alcione Milano 9 2 6 1 13:14 12
10 Lumezzane 9 3 3 3 10:11 12
11 Pergolettese 9 2 5 2 5:6 11
12 Lecco 9 2 4 3 7:9 10
13 Dolomiti Bellunesi 9 2 4 3 7:9 10
14 Novara 9 2 3 4 8:12 9
15 Pro Vercelli 9 2 3 4 8:13 9
16 Juventus U23 9 1 4 4 8:15 7
17 Carpi 9 1 3 5 11:19 6
18 Folgore Caratese 9 1 3 5 9:13 6
19 Giana Erminio 9 0 5 4 8:12 5
20 Renate 9 0 4 5 8:14 4
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)