Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Albion vs Penarol

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Olivera M.
37'
Lopez A.
46'
Sub
Togni G. In: Angulo L.
Out: Togni G.

AI Match Summary

Penarol in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penarol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Albion
30%
Draws
51%
Penarol
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Penarol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Albion haven't matched Penarol's recent run of results.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Penarol taking it.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Penarol have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Albion Clean Sheet 19%
Penarol Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Albion Penarol
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 13
Draws 8 7
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.34 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.07 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Albion vs Penarol
0:1
Aug 13, 2022 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Albion
2:0
Jul 23, 2022 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Albion vs Penarol
1:3
Feb 19, 2022 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Albion vs Penarol
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Albion Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Penarol Compare

Top Goalscorer Olivera M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Albion 10 / 100
Penarol 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Albion Penarol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PEN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Albion's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Penarol has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.25 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Albion stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Albion VS Penarol
0.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Albion

(Home)
08 Aug
Liverpool M.
1 : 0
Albion
01 Aug
Albion
2 : 2
Danubio
17 Jul
Albion
0 : 1
Juventud
10 Jul
Maldonado
1 : 1
Albion
07 Jun
Progreso
1 : 2
Albion
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Penarol

(Away)
05 Aug
Penarol
5 : 1
Wanderers
01 Aug
Penarol
3 : 0
Cerro Largo
18 Jul
Penarol
3 : 0
Boston River
12 Jul
Racing Montevideo
1 : 1
Penarol
07 Jun
CA Cerro
0 : 1
Penarol
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing Montevideo 15 9 4 2 23:14 31
2 Maldonado 15 9 2 4 24:16 29
3 Albion 15 8 4 3 26:16 28
4 Penarol 15 8 3 4 23:16 27
5 Central Esp. 15 7 3 5 23:22 24
6 Montevideo City 15 6 5 4 22:16 23
7 Club Nacional 15 7 1 7 26:21 22
8 Defensor Sp. 15 5 6 4 13:11 21
9 Liverpool M. 15 5 5 5 20:18 20
10 Wanderers 15 6 2 7 16:21 20
11 Danubio 15 4 6 5 17:21 18
12 Cerro Largo 15 5 2 8 16:19 17
13 Boston River 15 5 2 8 14:20 17
14 Juventud 15 4 3 8 17:22 15
15 Progreso 15 2 4 9 12:23 10
16 CA Cerro 15 2 4 9 8:24 10
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)