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Albirex Niigata vs Vegalta Sendai - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J2 League Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
05:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Albirex Niigata host Vegalta Sendai in the J2 League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Albirex Niigata have averaged 1.24 scored and 1.45 conceded recently, against Vegalta Sendai's 1.79 scored and 1.1 conceded. Head-to-head, Albirex Niigata have won 2 to Vegalta Sendai's 1, with 2 draws. They last met on Oct 8, 2022, ending 3:0. xG projections (1.25 - 1.94) back Vegalta Sendai to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Albirex Niigata
30%
Draws
51%
Vegalta Sendai
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vegalta Sendai

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Vegalta Sendai carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Vegalta Sendai a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular J2 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Albirex Niigata Clean Sheet 10%
Vegalta Sendai Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Albirex Niigata Vegalta Sendai
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 20
Draws 2 3
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.24 1.79
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 8, 2022 J2 League
Albirex Niigata vs Vegalta Sendai
3:0
Feb 20, 2022 J2 League
Vegalta Sendai vs Albirex Niigata
0:0
Apr 18, 2018 J.League Cup
Albirex Niigata vs Vegalta Sendai
3:1
Mar 7, 2018 J.League Cup
Vegalta Sendai vs Albirex Niigata
1:1
Aug 19, 2017 J1 League
Albirex Niigata vs Vegalta Sendai
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Albirex Niigata 10 / 100
Vegalta Sendai 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Albirex Niigata Vegalta Sendai

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vegalta Sendai Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Albirex Niigata found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Albirex Niigata has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Vegalta Sendai conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Albirex Niigata VS Vegalta Sendai
1.25 Goals Scored 2.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Albirex Niigata

(Home)
17 Oct
Oita Trinita
5 : 1
Albirex Niigata
11 Oct
Shonan Bellmare
1 : 1
Albirex Niigata
03 Oct
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1
Tokushima
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0
Albirex Niigata
26 Sept
Blaublitz
2 : 2
Albirex Niigata
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Vegalta Sendai

(Away)
17 Oct
Vegalta Sendai
0 : 0
Tokushima
11 Oct
Montedio Yamagata
0 : 1
Vegalta Sendai
04 Oct
Vegalta Sendai
2 : 1
Iwata
26 Sept
Iwaki
0 : 2
Vegalta Sendai
20 Sept
Tochigi City
1 : 3
Vegalta Sendai
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vegalta Sendai 11 7 3 1 18:8 24
2 Omiya Ardija 11 5 5 1 21:11 20
3 Albirex Niigata 11 6 2 3 15:19 20
4 Toyama 11 5 4 2 20:11 19
5 Yokohama FC 11 5 3 3 20:14 18
6 Shonan Bellmare 11 4 6 1 12:10 18
7 Oita Trinita 11 4 5 2 16:9 17
8 Fujieda MYFC 11 3 5 3 13:11 14
9 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 11 3 5 3 15:15 14
10 Iwata 11 4 2 5 13:14 14
11 Sagan Tosu 11 4 2 5 11:13 14
12 Tokushima 11 4 2 5 10:12 14
13 Montedio Yamagata 11 4 1 6 11:9 13
14 Blaublitz 11 3 4 4 12:12 13
15 Iwaki 10 4 0 6 13:17 12
16 Tochigi City 11 3 2 6 17:18 11
17 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 11 3 2 6 13:19 11
18 Imabari 11 3 2 6 14:22 11
19 Vanraure 11 3 2 6 9:20 11
20 Kofu 10 3 1 6 9:18 10
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