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Aldier vs Ilbirs

Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan

Premier Liga
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Maslovskiy V.
36' Event
Kodirov S.
74' Event
Tanimowo O.

AI Match Summary

The Premier Liga game between Aldier and Ilbirs finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aldier.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Aldier
35%
Draws
42%
Ilbirs
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ilbirs

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Ilbirs have managed 1.2 goals a game lately — Aldier are scoring more at 1.4.
  • Win probability leans Ilbirs's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Aldier have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Aldier Clean Sheet 10%
Ilbirs Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aldier Ilbirs
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 8
Draws 10 13
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.4 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.77 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Premier Liga
Ilbirs vs Aldier
4:0
Jul 1, 2026 Premier Liga
Aldier vs Ilbirs
5:1
Aug 1, 2025 Premier Liga
Ilbirs vs Aldier
1:3
Jun 25, 2025 Premier Liga
Aldier vs Ilbirs
4:1
Nov 27, 2024 Premier Liga
Aldier vs Ilbirs
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aldier Compare

Top Goalscorer Tanimowo O.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Maslovskiy V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Ilbirs Compare

Top Goalscorer Levkovets A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aldier 14 / 100
Ilbirs 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aldier Ilbirs

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ilbirs Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aldier scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 4.80 goals.

Ilbirs has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Aldier has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Aldier VS Ilbirs
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Aldier

(Home)
18 Sept
Bars
2 : 1
Aldier
07 Sept
Dordoi Bishkek
2 : 2
Aldier
01 Sept
Aldier
3 : 2
Muras United
24 Aug
Toktogul
2 : 1
Aldier
19 Aug
Aldier
1 : 1
Abdysh-Ata Kant
Page 1 of 6

Ilbirs

(Away)
17 Sept
Asiagoal Bishkek
0 : 1
Ilbirs
11 Sept
Ilbirs
1 : 1
Bishkek City
19 Aug
Muras United
1 : 1
Ilbirs
15 Aug
Ilbirs
3 : 0
Dordoi Bishkek
11 Aug
Ilbirs
1 : 1
Asia Talas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bars 23 15 4 4 65:32 49
2 Muras United 22 13 7 2 47:20 46
3 Alga Bishkek 23 13 7 3 41:23 46
4 Asia Talas 24 13 7 4 55:38 46
5 Ozgon 22 14 2 6 48:27 44
6 Alay Osh 24 12 5 7 33:31 41
7 Talant 24 7 9 8 29:25 30
8 Dordoi Bishkek 23 8 5 10 36:32 29
9 Neftchi Kochkor-Ata 24 9 2 13 33:42 29
10 Ilbirs 23 6 10 7 29:34 28
11 Aldier 24 7 7 10 35:43 28
12 Toktogul 23 8 4 11 26:35 28
13 Bishkek City 24 6 9 9 26:33 27
14 Asiagoal Bishkek 24 4 9 11 27:40 21
15 Abdysh-Ata Kant 23 2 5 16 18:49 11
16 Kyrgyzaltyn 24 1 6 17 19:63 9
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Qualification)