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Alesves vs Lerines

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 15 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Valerio A.
43' Event
Villafane Molina S.
72' Event
Esparza U.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 15 2023/2024 game between Alesves and Lerines finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lerines.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Alesves
30%
Draws
70%
Lerines
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lerines

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Lerines carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Lerines a 70% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Alesves Clean Sheet 10%
Lerines Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alesves Lerines
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 7
Draws 6 7
Losses 20 16
Goals Scored 0.77 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Alesves vs Lerines
1:3
Jan 13, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Lerines vs Alesves
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alesves Compare

Top Goalscorer Valerio A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Lerines Compare

Top Goalscorer Villafane Molina S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Esparza U.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alesves 10 / 100
Lerines 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alesves Lerines

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lerines Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lerines has conceded goals in 97% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Alesves found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Difficult form: Lerines registered 1 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alesves VS Lerines
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
2.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alesves

(Home)
11 May
Beti Kozkor
2 : 1
Alesves
04 May
Alesves
1 : 3
Lerines
01 May
Cirbonero
4 : 1
Alesves
26 Apr
Alesves
0 : 1
Cortes
21 Apr
CD Cantolagua
1 : 0
Alesves
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Lerines

(Away)
11 May
Lerines
1 : 1
CD Beti Onak
04 May
Alesves
1 : 3
Lerines
01 May
Lerines
2 : 2
Ezcabarte
27 Apr
Beti Kozkor
2 : 0
Lerines
20 Apr
Lerines
4 : 4
Pena
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Subiza 34 20 8 6 68:29 68
2 Cortes 34 17 12 5 40:23 63
3 CD Ardoi 34 18 8 8 49:23 62
4 Pena 34 14 15 5 53:39 57
5 Huarte 34 16 6 12 51:47 54
6 CD Cantolagua 34 15 9 10 55:45 54
7 CD Beti Onak 34 15 5 14 47:50 50
8 Cirbonero 34 12 8 14 46:49 44
9 Txantrea 34 11 9 14 34:36 42
10 Pamplona 34 10 12 12 45:45 42
11 Beti Kozkor 34 11 9 14 35:43 42
12 Bidezarra 34 9 15 10 42:38 42
13 Burlades 34 11 8 15 35:47 41
14 Oberena 34 11 7 16 43:49 40
15 Ezcabarte 34 10 10 14 42:51 40
16 Lagunak 34 8 10 16 35:52 34
17 Lerines 34 9 7 18 34:59 34
18 Alesves 34 7 6 21 34:63 27
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 15 2023/2024 (Play Offs)