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Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) vs Comerciantes Unidos

Peru Peru

Liga 2 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Palomino K.
31'
Ayovi W.
35'
Campos D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 2 2023 game between Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) and Comerciantes Unidos finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Comerciantes Unidos.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Alfonso Ugarte (Puno)
33%
Draws
40%
Comerciantes Unidos
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Comerciantes Unidos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Comerciantes Unidos carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Comerciantes Unidos are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Liga 2 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) Clean Sheet 19%
Comerciantes Unidos Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) Comerciantes Unidos
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 11
Draws 9 10
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 0 1.5
Goals Conceded 0 1.5

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2023 Liga 2
Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) vs Comerciantes Unidos
1:2
Apr 30, 2023 Liga 2
Comerciantes Unidos vs Alfonso Ugarte (Puno)
2:1
Jul 3, 2022 Liga 2
Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) vs Comerciantes Unidos
2:0
Apr 2, 2022 Liga 2
Comerciantes Unidos vs Alfonso Ugarte (Puno)
2:1
Nov 1, 2014 Liga 2
Comerciantes Unidos vs Alfonso Ugarte (Puno)
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Comerciantes Unidos Compare

Top Goalscorer Bazan R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aponza S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) 28 / 100
Comerciantes Unidos 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) Comerciantes Unidos

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick COM Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Alfonso Ugarte (Puno) scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Comerciantes Unidos has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Comerciantes Unidos lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Comerciantes Unidos
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Comerciantes Unidos26203354:2263
2Los Chankas26165572:2553
3Alianza Huanuco26156543:2551
4Llacuabamba26137644:3146
5Santos FC26126832:2442
6Comerciantes FC26116927:2639
7U. San Martin261061034:3036
8Deportivo Coopsol261061030:2936
9Juan Aurich26710923:2731
10Union Huaral26591222:3424
11Ayacucho26581337:5023
12Pirata26561522:5921
13Carlos Stein26152026:768
14Alfonso Ugarte (Puno)26691136:4427