Sport Picks
Alfreton vs United of Manchester - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
NPL Premier Division 
Match Events
45'
45'
Ligendza S.
Penalty Missed
57'
57'
Salmon L.
AI Match Summary
Alfreton in this NPL Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alfreton.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
15%
42%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alfreton
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- United of Manchester have won more games recently than Alfreton.
- Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
- Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Alfreton Clean Sheet 10%
United of Manchester Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alfreton | United of Manchester |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 11 |
| Draws | 5 | 3 |
| Losses | 13 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.21 | 1.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 1.66 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 2.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 6, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Alfreton vs United of Manchester
1:0
Oct 13, 2020 FA Cup
United of Manchester vs Alfreton
0:0
Apr 20, 2019 National League North
Alfreton vs United of Manchester
2:3
Oct 30, 2018 National League North
United of Manchester vs Alfreton
1:1
Apr 21, 2018 National League North
Alfreton vs United of Manchester
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alfreton Compare
Top Goalscorer Salmon L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
United of Manchester Compare
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alfreton 30 / 100
United of Manchester 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alfreton United of Manchester
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
United of Manchester has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.
Alfreton found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).
Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Alfreton stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Alfreton VS United of Manchester
1.25 Goals Scored 2.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Alfreton
(Home) 06 Oct
Alfreton
1 : 0 United of Manchester
03 Oct
Redcar Athletic
3 : 1 Alfreton
29 Sept
Alfreton
1 : 0 Guiseley
26 Sept
Alfreton
2 : 1 Shifnal Town
12 Sept
Bamber Bridge
1 : 0 Alfreton
Page 1 of 6
06 Oct
Alfreton
1 : 0 United of Manchester
29 Sept
Alfreton
1 : 0 Guiseley
26 Sept
Alfreton
2 : 1 Shifnal Town
05 Sept
Alfreton
0 : 2 Stratford
29 Aug
Alfreton
1 : 2 Warrington Rylands
Page 1 of 4
United of Manchester
(Away) 06 Oct
Alfreton
1 : 0 United of Manchester
03 Oct
Worksop
0 : 3 United of Manchester
26 Sept
Hyde
2 : 0 United of Manchester
19 Sept
United of Manchester
4 : 1 Ossett United
12 Sept
United of Manchester
4 : 1 Warrington Town
Page 1 of 6
06 Oct
Alfreton
1 : 0 United of Manchester
03 Oct
Worksop
0 : 3 United of Manchester
26 Sept
Hyde
2 : 0 United of Manchester
05 Sept
Garforth
1 : 5 United of Manchester
29 Aug
Redcar Athletic
3 : 2 United of Manchester
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 27:7 | 27 |
| 2 | Avro | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 33:19 | 25 |
| 3 | Redcar Athletic | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 23:11 | 25 |
| 4 | Guiseley | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 24:11 | 22 |
| 5 | Workington | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23:19 | 21 |
| 6 | Warrington Rylands | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20:17 | 20 |
| 7 | Curzon Ashton | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21:11 | 19 |
| 8 | Alfreton | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 18:13 | 18 |
| 9 | Warrington Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20:16 | 18 |
| 10 | Bury FC | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19:9 | 16 |
| 11 | Gainsborough | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20:14 | 16 |
| 12 | Lancaster | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16:24 | 16 |
| 13 | Hyde | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13:21 | 14 |
| 14 | Ashton United | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12:11 | 12 |
| 15 | Whitby | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 17:32 | 12 |
| 16 | Stockton | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15:22 | 11 |
| 17 | Leek Town | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 22:23 | 10 |
| 18 | Quorn | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18:27 | 10 |
| 19 | AFC Emley | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10:22 | 10 |
| 20 | Bamber Bridge | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16:31 | 9 |
| 21 | Ilkeston | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7:26 | 7 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12:20 | 5 |
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