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Alfreton vs Warrington Town - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

NPL Premier Division
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Alfreton host Warrington Town in the NPL Premier Division. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Warrington Town have shipped 1.66 goals a game lately, while Alfreton have conceded 1.55 and scored 1.24. Past meetings favor Alfreton slightly — 1-0-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 1, 2025, ending 2:2. xG projections (1.56 - 1.69) back Alfreton to edge this. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Alfreton
20%
Draws
29%
Warrington Town
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alfreton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Alfreton come out ahead of Warrington Town on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Alfreton's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Alfreton Clean Sheet 13%
Warrington Town Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alfreton Warrington Town
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 5 8
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.24 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2025 National League North
Alfreton vs Warrington Town
2:2
Nov 9, 2024 National League North
Warrington Town vs Alfreton
0:1
Jan 13, 2024 National League North
Warrington Town vs Alfreton
2:2
Oct 7, 2023 National League North
Alfreton vs Warrington Town
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alfreton 39 / 100
Warrington Town 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alfreton Warrington Town

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alfreton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Warrington Town has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Alfreton found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 2.75 goals as a typical output.

Alfreton has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Alfreton VS Warrington Town
1.38 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Alfreton

(Home)
10 Oct
Alfreton
2 : 3
Bury FC
06 Oct
Alfreton
1 : 0
United of Manchester
03 Oct
Redcar Athletic
3 : 1
Alfreton
29 Sept
Alfreton
1 : 0
Guiseley
26 Sept
Alfreton
2 : 1
Shifnal Town
Page 1 of 6

Warrington Town

(Away)
10 Oct
Warrington Town
2 : 2
Lancaster
06 Oct
Warrington Town
2 : 2
Workington
03 Oct
Marine
2 : 0
Warrington Town
26 Sept
Warrington Town
2 : 3
Ashton United
19 Sept
Warrington Town
3 : 0
South Liverpool
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 13 9 3 1 30:7 30
2 Redcar Athletic 13 8 4 1 28:11 28
3 Guiseley 12 8 1 3 25:11 25
4 Avro 11 8 1 2 33:20 25
5 Curzon Ashton 11 7 1 3 23:11 22
6 Workington 13 6 3 4 23:22 21
7 Warrington Rylands 13 6 2 5 20:20 20
8 Bury FC 11 6 1 4 22:11 19
9 Gainsborough 11 6 1 4 22:15 19
10 Warrington Town 11 5 4 2 22:18 19
11 Alfreton 13 6 0 7 20:16 18
12 Lancaster 13 5 2 6 18:26 17
13 Hyde 13 4 2 7 13:23 14
14 Ashton United 11 3 4 4 14:13 13
15 Quorn 12 3 4 5 21:27 13
16 Whitby 12 4 1 7 17:32 13
17 Stockton 13 3 3 7 17:24 12
18 Leek Town 12 2 5 5 24:25 11
19 AFC Emley 12 2 4 6 11:24 10
20 Bamber Bridge 12 2 4 6 16:31 10
21 Ilkeston 13 2 1 10 7:31 7
22 United of Manchester 11 1 3 7 14:22 6
Promotion - National League North 2027/2028 (Main)
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