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Aliaga vs Bursaspor Prediction & H2H Stats

Turkey Turkey

2. Lig Red Group 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Furat E.
12' Event
Furat E.
Assist: Depe I.
57' Event
Turker H.
Assist: Depe I.

AI Match Summary

The 2. Lig Red Group 2025/2026 game between Aliaga and Bursaspor finished 0-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bursaspor.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Aliaga
15%
Draws
50%
Bursaspor
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bursaspor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Bursaspor carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Bursaspor taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Aliaga Clean Sheet 10%
Bursaspor Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aliaga Bursaspor
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 15 22
Draws 6 6
Losses 8 2
Goals Scored 1.97 2.33
Goals Conceded 1.59 0.47
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 2. Lig Red Group
Aliaga vs Bursaspor
0:5
Dec 20, 2025 2. Lig Red Group
Bursaspor vs Aliaga
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aliaga Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Bursaspor Compare

Top Goalscorer Furat E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Turker H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aliaga 26 / 100
Bursaspor 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aliaga Bursaspor

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bursaspor Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aliaga found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Aliaga has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Bursaspor has conceded goals in 37% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Aliaga VS Bursaspor
1.25 Goals Scored 2.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Aliaga

(Home)
27 Sept
Aliaga
2 : 1
Sanliurfaspor
19 Sept
Elazigspor
5 : 0
Aliaga
13 Sept
Aliaga
2 : 0
Isparta 32 Spor
06 Sept
Arnavutkoy Bl.
1 : 4
Aliaga
04 May
Musspor
1 : 0
Aliaga
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Bursaspor

(Away)
19 Sept
Batman Petrolspor
1 : 2
Bursaspor
13 Sept
Bursaspor
2 : 2
Erokspor
07 Sept
Manisa FK
1 : 2
Bursaspor
03 Sept
Bursaspor
4 : 0
Istanbulspor AS
29 Aug
Kayserispor
1 : 2
Bursaspor
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bursaspor 34 25 5 4 87:19 80
2 Mardin 1969 34 22 5 7 67:25 71
3 Musspor 34 21 7 6 82:35 70
4 Aliaga 34 21 6 7 81:32 69
5 K. Istklalspor 34 21 4 9 82:33 67
6 Isparta 32 Spor 34 18 9 7 70:36 63
7 Guzide Gebzespor 34 16 10 8 56:31 58
8 Menemenspor 34 15 6 13 57:51 51
9 Ankara Demirspor 34 14 7 13 47:47 49
10 Aksaray Bld. 34 11 14 9 52:38 47
11 Trabzon FK 34 13 8 13 54:51 47
12 Arnavutkoy Bl. 34 13 7 14 40:36 46
13 Fethiyespor 34 11 11 12 52:41 44
14 Kirklarelispor 34 9 9 16 44:49 36
15 Soma Spor 34 8 6 20 41:68 30
16 Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 33 4 3 26 22:97 12
17 Adanaspor AS 33 2 1 30 14:159 1
18 Yeni Malatyaspor 34 0 2 32 8:114 -52
Promotion - 1. Lig (Main)
Promotion - 2. Lig Play Offs (Main)