Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aliaga vs Bursaspor

Turkey Turkey

2. Lig Red Group 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Furat E. I.
12' Event
Furat E. I.
Assist: Depe I.
57' Event
Turker H.
Assist: Depe I.

AI Match Summary

The 2. Lig Red Group 2025/2026 game between Aliaga and Bursaspor finished 0-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bursaspor.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Aliaga
6%
Draws
90%
Bursaspor
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Bursaspor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Bursaspor carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Bursaspor taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Aliaga Clean Sheet 11%
Bursaspor Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aliaga Bursaspor
Matches Played 33 34
Wins 17 23
Draws 7 6
Losses 9 5
Goals Scored 3 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.25
Expected Goals (xG) 3.00 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 2. Lig Red Group
Aliaga vs Bursaspor
0:5
Dec 20, 2025 2. Lig Red Group
Bursaspor vs Aliaga
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aliaga Compare

Avg xG / game 2.31
Avg xA / game 1.5

Bursaspor Compare

Top Goalscorer Furat E. I.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Turker H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aliaga 10 / 100
Bursaspor 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aliaga Bursaspor

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BUR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aliaga found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (33 games).

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Aliaga has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Bursaspor has conceded goals in 41% of their last 34 outings.

Scoring Trends

Aliaga VS Bursaspor
3 Goals Scored 2.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.25
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Aliaga

(Home)
04 May
Musspor
1 : 0
Aliaga
30 Apr
Aliaga
1 : 1
Musspor
25 Apr
Aliaga
0 : 5
Bursaspor
19 Apr
Aksaray Bld.
1 : 1
Aliaga
12 Apr
Aliaga
5 : 0
Menemenspor
Page 1 of 7

Bursaspor

(Away)
26 Jul
Bursaspor
0 : 0
Shakhtar
25 Apr
Aliaga
0 : 5
Bursaspor
19 Apr
Bursaspor
5 : 1
Soma Spor
12 Apr
Ankara Demirspor
0 : 1
Bursaspor
04 Apr
Bursaspor
2 : 0
Mardin 1969
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bursaspor34255487:1980
2Mardin 196934225767:2571
3Musspor34217682:3570
4Aliaga34216781:3269
5K. Istklalspor34214982:3367
6Isparta 32 Spor34189770:3663
7Guzide Gebzespor341610856:3158
8Menemenspor341561357:5151
9Ankara Demirspor341471347:4749
10Aksaray Bld.341114952:3847
11Trabzon FK341381354:5147
12Arnavutkoy Bl.341371440:3646
13Fethiyespor3411111252:4144
14Kirklarelispor34991644:4936
15Soma Spor34862041:6830
16Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu33432622:9712
17Adanaspor AS33213014:1591
18Yeni Malatyaspor3402328:114-52
Promotion - 1. Lig (Main)
Promotion - 2. Lig Play Offs (Main)