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Alianza FC vs Hercules

El Salvador El Salvador

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Cuscatlán, San Salvador
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Henriquez A.
46' Event
Rivera N.
60' Event
Posada C.

AI Match Summary

The Primera Division 2025/2026 game between Alianza FC and Hercules finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alianza FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Alianza FC
35%
Draws
42%
Hercules
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Hercules

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Alianza FC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Primera Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Alianza FC have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Alianza FC Clean Sheet 20%
Hercules Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alianza FC Hercules
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 6
Draws 10 9
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 1.39 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2026 Primera Division
Alianza FC vs Hercules
3:2
Feb 8, 2026 Primera Division
Hercules vs Alianza FC
1:4
Oct 19, 2025 Primera Division
Alianza FC vs Hercules
0:1
Aug 16, 2025 Primera Division
Hercules vs Alianza FC
2:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alianza FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Henriquez A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rivera N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Hercules Compare

Top Goalscorer Posada C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mancia I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alianza FC 32 / 100
Hercules 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alianza FC Hercules

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hercules Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Hercules conceded in 93% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Alianza FC's goal record stands at 65% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Alianza FC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alianza FC VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Alianza FC

(Home)
27 Sept
Alianza FC
1 : 1
Inca Aruba
24 Sept
Alianza FC
2 : 2
Fuerte San Francisco
20 Sept
Alianza FC
3 : 2
Municipal Limeno
17 Sept
Alianza FC
0 : 0
Motagua
10 Sept
Motagua
3 : 0
Alianza FC
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Hercules

(Away)
01 May
Hercules
3 : 0
Metapan
26 Apr
Platense Municipal
1 : 1
Hercules
23 Apr
Cacahuatique
1 : 2
Hercules
19 Apr
Hercules
2 : 2
Luis Angel Firpo
15 Apr
Cacahuatique
1 : 2
Hercules
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FAS 22 16 5 1 49:16 53
2 Luis Angel Firpo 22 13 5 4 34:20 44
3 Alianza FC 22 11 4 7 36:30 37
4 Inter Santa Tecla 22 10 6 6 27:25 36
5 Municipal Limeno 22 10 5 7 33:21 35
6 Aguila 22 10 5 7 27:24 35
7 Metapan 22 6 9 7 23:30 27
8 Cacahuatique 22 6 8 8 24:28 26
9 Platense Municipal 22 4 8 10 24:31 20
10 Hercules 22 4 7 11 27:43 19
11 Fuerte San Francisco 22 2 8 12 18:35 14
12 Zacatecoluca FC 22 3 4 15 23:42 13
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)