Sport Picks

Peru

Liga 1 2025 Estadio Heraclio Tapia

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Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Alianza Huanuco host AD Tarma in the Liga 1 2025. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Alianza Huanuco have averaged 1 scored and 1.13 conceded recently, against AD Tarma's 1.75 scored and 0.88 conceded. Head-to-head, Alianza Huanuco have won 1 to AD Tarma's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Jun 19, 2026, ending 3:1. Model xG sits at 0.94 vs 1.44, favoring AD Tarma. AD Tarma in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Alianza Huanuco

30%

Draws

34%

AD Tarma

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Alianza Huanuco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence

AD Tarma demonstrates higher offensive output (1.75 avg goals) than Alianza Huanuco (1 avg goals).
Model forecasts a 36% win probability edge for Alianza Huanuco.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Liga 1 2025 provide steady trend data.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%

Alianza Huanuco Clean Sheet 16%

AD Tarma Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Alianza Huanuco	AD Tarma
Matches Played	27	29
Wins	9	9
Draws	5	8
Losses	13	12
Goals Scored	1	1.75
Goals Conceded	1.13	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 19, 2026 Copa de la Liga

AD Tarma vs Alianza Huanuco

Possession: 52% - 56% Cards: 1 - 1

3:1

Oct 20, 2025 Liga 1

Alianza Huanuco vs AD Tarma

Possession: 51% - 47% Cards: 4 - 2

0:0

Jul 31, 2025 Liga 1

AD Tarma vs Alianza Huanuco

Possession: 49% - 49% Cards: 1 - 0

0:3

Feb 23, 2025 Liga 1

Alianza Huanuco vs AD Tarma

Possession: 49% - 55% Cards: 2 - 3

2:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alianza Huanuco 36 / 100

AD Tarma 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Alianza Huanuco AD Tarma

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alianza Huanuco scored in 85% of their last 27 games.

AD Tarma let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Alianza Huanuco went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

AD Tarma lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alianza Huanuco VS AD Tarma

1 Goals Scored 1.75

1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88

75% Over 1.5 75%

38% Over 2.5 63%

13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Universitario de Deportes	17	12	4	1	29:13	40
2	Cusco	17	11	3	3	29:15	36
3	Sporting Cristal	17	9	4	4	29:13	31
4	A. Lima	17	9	4	4	30:19	31
5	Cienciano	17	8	3	6	25:21	27
6	Los Chankas	17	9	0	8	21:28	27
7	Comerciantes Unidos	17	7	5	5	20:21	26
8	FBC Melgar	17	6	7	4	24:17	25
9	Deportivo Garcilaso	17	6	7	4	20:21	25
10	AD Tarma	17	7	4	6	19:20	25
11	Alianza Atl.	17	6	5	6	15:12	23
12	Sport Huancayo	17	5	3	9	28:28	18
13	Alianza Huanuco	17	5	2	10	23:33	17
14	Atletico Grau	17	4	4	9	19:24	16
15	Sport Boys	17	4	4	9	14:25	16
16	Juan Pablo II	17	3	5	9	13:23	14
17	Ayacucho	17	4	2	11	16:29	14
18	Cajamarca	17	3	4	10	16:28	13
19	Binacional	0	0	0	0	0:0	0