Sport Picks
Alianza vs Bucaramanga - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Colombia
Primera A Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar 
Match Events
5'
5'
Charrupi F.
Assist: Batalla E.
28'
28'
Vergara C.
Assist: Quinones D.
34'
34'
Pons L.
Assist: Sambueza F.
AI Match Summary
The Primera A game between Alianza and Bucaramanga finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bucaramanga.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
15%
50%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bucaramanga
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
50%
/ Medium Confidence
- Alianza haven't matched Bucaramanga's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Bucaramanga's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Primera A form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Bucaramanga here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Alianza Clean Sheet 15%
Bucaramanga Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alianza | Bucaramanga |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 10 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 12 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1.55 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.36 | 1.21 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.63 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 9, 2026 Primera A
Alianza vs Bucaramanga
2:3
May 24, 2026 Copa Colombia
Alianza vs Bucaramanga
2:1
Feb 1, 2026 Primera A
Bucaramanga vs Alianza
5:0
Sep 6, 2025 Primera A
Bucaramanga vs Alianza
3:1
Aug 3, 2025 Primera A
Alianza vs Bucaramanga
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alianza Compare
Top Goalscorer Vergara C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Martinez M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32
Bucaramanga Compare
Top Goalscorer Charrupi F.
1 Goals Assists Leader Pons L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alianza 10 / 100
Bucaramanga 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alianza Bucaramanga
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Bucaramanga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 4.20 goals.
Alianza found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).
Bucaramanga has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.
Recent resilience: Alianza stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Alianza VS Bucaramanga
0.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
38% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Alianza
(Home) 03 Oct
Dep. Cali
3 : 1 Alianza
27 Sept
Jaguares de Cordoba
1 : 2 Alianza
19 Sept
Alianza
1 : 4 Santa Fe
16 Sept
Chico
1 : 2 Alianza
13 Sept
Alianza
1 : 0 Junior
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Alianza
1 : 4 Santa Fe
13 Sept
Alianza
1 : 0 Junior
30 Aug
Alianza
1 : 5 Atl. Nacional
22 Aug
Alianza
0 : 0 Dep. Pereira
09 Aug
Alianza
2 : 3 Bucaramanga
Page 1 of 3
Bucaramanga
(Away) 04 Oct
Bucaramanga
3 : 1 Junior
26 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 3 Bucaramanga
20 Sept
Bucaramanga
2 : 0 Inter Bogotá
18 Sept
Bucaramanga
2 : 2 Ind. Medellin
13 Sept
Dep. Pereira
1 : 3 Bucaramanga
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 3 Bucaramanga
13 Sept
Dep. Pereira
1 : 3 Bucaramanga
31 Aug
Dep. Cali
1 : 1 Bucaramanga
22 Aug
Deportes Tolima
0 : 0 Bucaramanga
09 Aug
Alianza
2 : 3 Bucaramanga
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America De Cali | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 24:7 | 27 |
| 2 | Dep. Cali | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20:9 | 24 |
| 3 | Atl. Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21:10 | 23 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 20:10 | 23 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19:12 | 22 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 19:12 | 22 |
| 7 | Ind. Medellin | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19:16 | 20 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 15:13 | 20 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16:16 | 16 |
| 10 | Aguilas Doradas | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 16:17 | 15 |
| 11 | Cucuta | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15:19 | 15 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15:17 | 14 |
| 13 | Inter Bogotá | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 14:18 | 13 |
| 14 | Chico | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10:18 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14:26 | 12 |
| 16 | Fortaleza C.E.I.F. | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14:19 | 11 |
| 17 | Junior | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16:20 | 9 |
| 18 | Dep. Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9:18 | 9 |
| 19 | Dep. Pereira | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7:17 | 8 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11:20 | 7 |
Promotion - Primera A (Clausura - Quadrangular)
