Sport Picks
Alianza vs Deportes Tolima
Colombia
Primera A Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar 
Match Events
9'
9'
Pardo F.
Assist: Lasso J.
35'
35'
Wallens J.
37'
37'
Sandoval L.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
Deportes Tolima in this Primera A matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Deportes Tolima.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
15%
42%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alianza
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
42%
/ Low Confidence
- Alianza haven't matched Deportes Tolima's recent run of results.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Deportes Tolima have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Alianza Clean Sheet 17%
Deportes Tolima Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alianza | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 33 |
| Wins | 7 | 14 |
| Draws | 9 | 6 |
| Losses | 12 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 0.89 | 1.27 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.32 | 1.18 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 1, 2026 Primera A
Alianza vs Deportes Tolima
1:2
Jan 24, 2026 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Alianza
2:0
Jul 22, 2025 Primera A
Alianza vs Deportes Tolima
0:1
Feb 8, 2025 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Alianza
3:1
Oct 20, 2024 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Alianza
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alianza Compare
Top Goalscorer Pardo F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Deportes Tolima Compare
Top Goalscorer Hurtado J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alianza 31 / 100
Deportes Tolima 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alianza Deportes Tolima
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Deportes Tolima Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Alianza found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (28 games).
Deportes Tolima let in goals in 70% of their last 33 matches.
H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.
Deportes Tolima's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
Scoring Trends
Alianza VS Deportes Tolima
0.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
38% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Alianza
(Home) 16 Sept
Chico
1 : 2 Alianza
13 Sept
Alianza
1 : 0 Junior
10 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Alianza
03 Sept
America De Cali
3 : 0 Alianza
30 Aug
Alianza
1 : 5 Atl. Nacional
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Alianza
1 : 0 Junior
30 Aug
Alianza
1 : 5 Atl. Nacional
22 Aug
Alianza
0 : 0 Dep. Pereira
09 Aug
Alianza
2 : 3 Bucaramanga
01 Aug
Alianza
1 : 2 Deportes Tolima
Page 1 of 3
Deportes Tolima
(Away) 16 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
12 Sept
Santa Fe
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
07 Sept
Llaneros
1 : 2 Deportes Tolima
01 Sept
Deportes Tolima
2 : 1 Cucuta
26 Aug
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Deportes Tolima
Page 1 of 7
16 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
12 Sept
Santa Fe
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
07 Sept
Llaneros
1 : 2 Deportes Tolima
26 Aug
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Deportes Tolima
01 Aug
Alianza
1 : 2 Deportes Tolima
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America De Cali | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20:5 | 20 |
| 2 | Atl. Nacional | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17:6 | 18 |
| 3 | Ind. Medellin | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:10 | 16 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12:8 | 16 |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 | Bucaramanga | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12:8 | 14 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12:9 | 13 |
| 8 | Dep. Cali | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11:8 | 12 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13:11 | 12 |
| 10 | Aguilas Doradas | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:12 | 11 |
| 11 | Llaneros | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:12 | 11 |
| 12 | Inter Bogotá | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13:15 | 11 |
| 13 | Cucuta | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9:15 | 9 |
| 14 | Fortaleza C.E.I.F. | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10:12 | 8 |
| 15 | Alianza | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8:16 | 8 |
| 16 | Chico | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:15 | 8 |
| 17 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9:14 | 7 |
| 18 | Dep. Pereira | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6:11 | 7 |
| 19 | Dep. Pasto | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8:15 | 5 |
| 20 | Junior | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8:13 | 3 |
Promotion - Primera A (Clausura - Quadrangular)
