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Alianza vs Olimpia

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Central American Cup Estadio Javier Cruz, Panama City
Fri, Aug 21, 2026
VS
01:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the CONCACAF Central American Cup. Little to choose between these two on current form. Alianza have averaged 1.54 scored and 1.25 conceded recently, against Olimpia's 1.68 scored and 0.89 conceded. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. Model xG sits at 1.06 vs 1.13, favoring Olimpia. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Alianza
20%
Draws
60%
Olimpia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Olimpia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Alianza haven't matched Olimpia's recent run of results.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Olimpia taking it.
  • Olimpia arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • These two have never met before — a fresh matchup with no historical pattern to lean on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Alianza Clean Sheet 20%
Olimpia Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alianza Olimpia
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 17
Draws 13 4
Losses 4 7
Goals Scored 1.54 1.68
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alianza 20 / 100
Olimpia 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alianza Olimpia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Olimpia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Alianza scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: Alianza remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Olimpia has conceded goals in 57% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Alianza VS Olimpia
0.88 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alianza

(Home)
09 Aug
Sporting San Miguelito
0 : 0
Alianza
06 Aug
Saprissa
2 : 1
Alianza
01 Aug
Arabe Unido
0 : 1
Alianza
25 Jul
Alianza
0 : 0
UMECIT
23 May
Plaza Amador
3 : 2
Alianza
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Olimpia

(Away)
09 Aug
Juticalpa
1 : 3
Olimpia
06 Aug
UMECIT
1 : 2
Olimpia
03 Aug
Olimpia
2 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
29 Jul
Olimpia
2 : 0
Deportivo Mixco
24 Jul
Olimpia
1 : 0
Motagua
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alajuelense 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
2 Plaza Amador 3 2 0 1 9:7 6
3 Luis Angel Firpo 2 1 0 1 5:2 3
4 Diriangen 3 1 0 2 5:9 3
5 Xelaju 2 0 0 2 2:6 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Esteli 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
2 Alianza FC 3 2 0 1 4:4 6
3 Marathon 2 1 1 0 3:0 4
4 Herediano 2 0 1 1 0:1 1
5 Antigua 3 0 0 3 1:7 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Saprissa 3 3 0 0 7:2 9
2 Olimpia 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
3 Alianza 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
4 UMECIT 3 0 0 3 2:5 0
5 Deportivo Mixco 2 0 0 2 0:5 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Motagua 3 2 1 0 7:1 7
2 Municipal 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
3 FAS 2 1 0 1 4:2 3
4 Cartagines 2 0 2 0 2:2 2
5 Verdes 3 0 0 3 1:10 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)