Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Alliance vs Mwadui

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara 2019/2020
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Richard D.
18' Event
Richard D.
23' Event
Otu S.

AI Match Summary

The Ligi Kuu Bara 2019/2020 game between Alliance and Mwadui finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alliance.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Alliance
20%
Draws
0%
Mwadui
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alliance

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Alliance carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Alliance's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Alliance Clean Sheet 68%
Mwadui Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alliance Mwadui
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 9 6
Draws 7 4
Losses 14 24
Goals Scored 0.97 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.4 2.12
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 19, 2020 Ligi Kuu Bara
Alliance vs Mwadui
4:1
Sep 25, 2019 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mwadui vs Alliance
1:1
May 9, 2019 Ligi Kuu Bara
Alliance vs Mwadui
3:1
Dec 8, 2018 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mwadui vs Alliance
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alliance Compare

Top Goalscorer Richard D.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Mwinyishehe S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Mwadui Compare

Top Goalscorer Otu S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alliance 95 / 100
Mwadui 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alliance Mwadui

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alliance Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mwadui let in goals in 85% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 3.75 goals.

Mwadui's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Alliance found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

- VS Mwadui
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.75
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alliance

(Home)
26 Jul
Alliance
3 : 2
Namungo
23 Jul
Alliance
2 : 2
Ndanda
19 Jul
Simba
5 : 1
Alliance
15 Jul
JKT Tanzania
1 : 1
Alliance
09 Jul
Alliance
2 : 0
Lipuli
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Mwadui

(Away)
18 Jul
Polisi Tanzania
1 : 0
Mwadui
15 Jul
Coastal Union
5 : 0
Mwadui
20 Jun
Young Africans
3 : 2
Mwadui
17 Jun
Mwadui
1 : 3
Mtibwa Sugar
18 May
Mwadui
0 : 1
Tanzania Prisons
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Simba 38 27 7 4 78:21 88
2 Young Africans 38 19 15 4 45:28 72
3 Azam 38 20 10 8 52:26 70
4 Namungo 38 17 13 8 46:37 64
5 Polisi Tanzania 38 15 10 13 37:35 55
6 JKT Tanzania 38 13 15 10 34:32 54
7 Coastal Union 38 14 11 13 33:30 53
8 Kagera Sugar 38 15 7 16 44:41 52
9 Biashara Mara United 38 12 14 12 29:27 50
10 Tanzania Prisons 38 10 19 9 35:30 49
11 Mwadui 38 12 11 15 39:45 47
12 Ruvu Shooting 38 12 11 15 34:42 47
13 Kinondoni MC 38 13 7 18 35:47 46
14 Mtibwa Sugar 38 11 12 15 30:34 45
15 Mbeya City 38 12 9 17 33:42 45
16 Mbao 38 12 9 17 33:43 45
17 Alliance 38 11 12 15 36:48 45
18 Lipuli 38 12 8 18 43:51 44
19 Ndanda 38 9 14 15 28:35 41
20 Singida United 38 4 6 28 23:73 18
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2020/2021 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2020/2021 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2019/2020 (Relegation)