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Alloa vs Stenhousemuir

Scotland Scotland

Championship 2025/2026 Recreation Park
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Taylor R.
30' Event
Aitken M.
(Penalty)
57'
Taylor R.

AI Match Summary

The Championship 2025/2026 game between Alloa and Stenhousemuir finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Stenhousemuir.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Alloa
44%
Draws
20%
Stenhousemuir
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Stenhousemuir carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Alloa Clean Sheet 16%
Stenhousemuir Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alloa Stenhousemuir
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 18
Draws 4 8
Losses 12 4
Goals Scored 1.38 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Championship
Stenhousemuir vs Alloa
0:1
May 13, 2026 Championship
Alloa vs Stenhousemuir
1:3
Apr 25, 2026 League One
Stenhousemuir vs Alloa
1:0
Dec 27, 2025 League One
Alloa vs Stenhousemuir
0:0
Oct 25, 2025 League One
Alloa vs Stenhousemuir
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alloa Compare

Top Goalscorer Waters C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Stenhousemuir Compare

Top Goalscorer Taylor R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Anderson M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alloa 36 / 100
Stenhousemuir 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alloa Stenhousemuir

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick STE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alloa found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Alloa has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Stenhousemuir's defensive record shows goals conceded in 50% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Alloa VS Stenhousemuir
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Airdrieonians1
Alloa3
Stenhousemuir4
Queen of the South3
Final
Alloa2
Stenhousemuir3