Sport Picks

Scotland

League Cup Recreation Park, Alloa

Alloa

Sat, Jul 18, 2026

3 - 2

02:00 PM

Stranraer

Our Tip

Match Events

39'

Gillie L.

Assist: Traynor A.

44'

Coll B.

46'

Sub

McCafferty F. In: Gallagher C.

Out: McCafferty F.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-2. The second leg ended 3-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%

Alloa

30%

Draws

47%

Stranraer

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Stranraer

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence

Alloa carry the better recent record into this one.
Stranraer are the model's pick here, at 60%.
Alloa have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Alloa, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%

Alloa Clean Sheet 20%

Stranraer Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Alloa	Stranraer
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	12	10
Draws	5	5
Losses	12	14
Goals Scored	1.38	1.38
Goals Conceded	1.34	1.41
Expected Goals (xG)	1.56	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 11, 2026 Challenge Cup

Alloa vs Stranraer

2:1

Jul 18, 2026 League Cup

Alloa vs Stranraer

3:2

Aug 12, 2025 Challenge Cup

Stranraer vs Alloa

2:1

Sep 22, 2020 Club Friendly

Alloa vs Stranraer

3:1

Apr 7, 2018 League One

Alloa vs Stranraer

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alloa Compare

Top Goalscorer Rankin L.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.2

Avg xA / game 0.78

Stranraer Compare

Top Goalscorer Gillie L.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Quigg A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alloa 20 / 100

Stranraer 56 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Alloa Stranraer

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stranraer Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Alloa's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Stranraer's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Alloa went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alloa VS Stranraer

1.63 Goals Scored 1.63

0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5

88% Over 1.5 75%

38% Over 2.5 63%

0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Alloa

(Home)

12 Sept

Airdrieonians

1 : 0

Alloa

08 Sept

Clydebank FC

1 : 1

Alloa

05 Sept

Cove Rangers

1 : 1

Alloa

29 Aug

Alloa

1 : 1

Peterhead

25 Aug

Alloa

3 : 0

Motherwell B

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Stranraer

(Away)

12 Sept

Stranraer

3 : 1

Dumbarton

05 Sept

Forfar Athletic

0 : 3

Stranraer

01 Sept

Stranraer

3 : 4

Celtic B

29 Aug

Stranraer

2 : 0

Kelty Hearts

25 Aug

Stranraer

3 : 0

Gala Fairydean Rovers

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