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Almeria vs Leganes - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

LaLiga2 UD Almería Stadium, Almería
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
02:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Almeria host Leganes in the LaLiga2. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Recent numbers: Almeria at 1.69 goals for, 1.16 against; Leganes at 0.91 for, 1.33 against. Head-to-head, Almeria have won 3 to Leganes's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 5, 2026, ending 2:1. The numbers (1.31 xG vs 0.81) point toward Almeria. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

67%
Almeria
15%
Draws
18%
Leganes
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Almeria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / High Confidence
  • Almeria carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Almeria are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular LaLiga2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Almeria Clean Sheet 20%
Leganes Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Almeria Leganes
Matches Played 32 33
Wins 18 9
Draws 4 9
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.69 0.91
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2026 LaLiga2
Almeria vs Leganes
2:1
Nov 22, 2025 LaLiga2
Leganes vs Almeria
0:3
Jan 15, 2025 Copa del Rey
Almeria vs Leganes
2:3
May 29, 2022 LaLiga2
Leganes vs Almeria
2:2
Oct 29, 2021 LaLiga2
Almeria vs Leganes
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Almeria 85 / 100
Leganes 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Almeria Leganes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Almeria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Almeria remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Almeria scored in 75% of their last 32 outings.

Defensive concern: Leganes conceded in 67% of 33 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Almeria VS Leganes
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Almeria

(Home)
03 Oct
Almeria
2 : 1
Burgos CF
27 Sept
Mallorca
0 : 1
Almeria
20 Sept
Almeria
2 : 0
Celta Vigo B
12 Sept
Cordoba
0 : 2
Almeria
06 Sept
Almeria
3 : 2
Cadiz
Page 1 of 7

Leganes

(Away)
03 Oct
Cadiz
4 : 0
Leganes
28 Sept
Leganes
0 : 2
Castellon
20 Sept
Leganes
3 : 2
Granada CF
13 Sept
Tenerife
2 : 0
Leganes
04 Sept
Las Palmas
0 : 0
Leganes
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Castellon 7 6 1 0 14:2 19
2 Eibar 7 6 0 1 15:6 18
3 Almeria 7 5 0 2 11:4 15
4 Burgos CF 7 4 2 1 11:7 14
5 Girona 7 4 1 2 14:8 13
6 Mallorca 7 4 1 2 8:3 13
7 Sabadell 7 3 3 1 8:6 12
8 Real Oviedo 8 3 2 3 8:8 11
9 Tenerife 7 3 2 2 8:9 11
10 Leganes 7 3 2 2 6:7 11
11 Las Palmas 7 3 1 3 10:11 10
12 Gijon 7 3 1 3 5:6 10
13 Granada CF 7 2 2 3 10:11 8
14 Real Sociedad B 7 2 2 3 9:10 8
15 Eldense 8 2 2 4 8:10 8
16 Celta Vigo B 7 2 2 3 8:11 8
17 Valladolid 7 2 2 3 6:9 8
18 FC Andorra 7 2 0 5 12:15 6
19 Cordoba 7 2 0 5 10:16 6
20 Cadiz 7 0 4 3 7:10 4
21 AD Ceuta 7 1 1 5 6:17 4
22 Albacete 7 0 1 6 4:12 1
Promotion - LaLiga 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs)