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Alvarado vs Germinal Prediction & H2H Stats

Argentina Argentina

Torneo Federal Estadio José María Minella, Mar del Plata
Alvarado Logo

Alvarado

5 - 0
FT
Germinal Logo

Germinal

Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Cervera G.
8' Event
Gutierrez S.
11' Event
Centurion F.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Torneo Federal game between Alvarado and Germinal finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alvarado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Alvarado
35%
Draws
28%
Germinal
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Alvarado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Germinal haven't matched Alvarado's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Alvarado's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 21.200000000000003%
Alvarado Clean Sheet 68%
Germinal Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alvarado Germinal
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 9
Draws 11 11
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 1.1 0.73
Goals Conceded 0.69 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 Torneo Federal
Alvarado vs Germinal
5:0
May 3, 2026 Torneo Federal
Germinal vs Alvarado
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alvarado Compare

Top Goalscorer Cervera G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gutierrez S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Germinal Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alvarado 68 / 100
Germinal 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alvarado Germinal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alvarado Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Alvarado remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Alvarado found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Germinal conceded in 57% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Alvarado VS Germinal
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Alvarado

(Home)
27 Sept
Defensores Belgrano Villa Ramallo
2 : 2
Alvarado
20 Sept
Alvarado
1 : 1
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
13 Sept
Cipolletti
1 : 0
Alvarado
06 Sept
Alvarado
3 : 2
Biblioteca Atenas
30 Aug
Kimberley
0 : 2
Alvarado
Page 1 of 6

Germinal

(Away)
20 Sept
Circulo Deportivo
2 : 0
Germinal
13 Sept
Germinal
1 : 0
Guillermo Brown
06 Sept
Fundacion Amigos
1 : 1
Germinal
30 Aug
Germinal
0 : 0
Deportivo Rincon
23 Aug
Germinal
0 : 0
San Martin Mendoza
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Douglas Haig 18 9 4 5 22:15 31
2 Sportivo Belgrano 18 7 9 2 21:9 30
3 Gimnasia Chivilcoy 18 7 6 5 17:12 27
4 Defensores Belgrano Villa Ramallo 18 7 6 5 24:20 27
5 9 de Julio Rafaela 18 7 4 7 28:27 25
6 Sportivo Las Parejas 18 5 9 4 12:13 24
7 Atletico Escobar 18 6 4 8 21:29 22
8 Independiente Chivilcoy 18 4 7 7 15:22 19
9 El Linqueno 18 5 4 9 14:21 19
10 Gimnasia E.R. 18 4 5 9 12:18 17
Promotion - Torneo Federal (Winners stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 San Martin Formosa 16 9 3 4 25:19 30
2 Bartolome Mitre 16 7 5 4 13:7 26
3 Sol de America 16 8 2 6 19:14 26
4 Sarmiento de La Banda 16 7 4 5 17:15 25
5 Juventud Antoniana 16 7 4 5 19:11 25
6 Defensores de Vilelas 16 6 1 9 21:26 19
7 Boca Unidos 16 5 3 8 19:25 18
8 Tucuman Central 16 5 2 9 14:19 17
9 Sarmiento Resistencia 16 3 6 7 12:23 15
Promotion - Torneo Federal (Winners stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cipolletti 16 7 4 5 19:15 25
2 Argentino MM 16 5 8 3 16:12 23
3 Biblioteca Atenas 16 6 5 5 12:13 23
4 Huracan Las Heras 16 6 5 5 11:13 23
5 Fundacion Amigos 16 4 9 3 17:14 21
6 Deportivo Rincon 16 5 4 7 13:16 19
7 San Martin Mendoza 16 4 7 5 11:15 19
8 Costa Brava 16 4 6 6 12:13 18
9 Juventud U.U. 16 3 8 5 10:10 17
Promotion - Torneo Federal (Winners stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olimpo Bahia Blanca 16 8 7 1 13:4 31
2 Alvarado 16 7 6 3 19:7 27
3 Kimberley 16 6 8 2 15:9 26
4 Villa Mitre 16 5 8 3 14:8 23
5 Germinal 16 4 6 6 7:14 18
6 Sol de Mayo 16 4 6 6 15:18 18
7 Guillermo Brown 16 4 5 7 13:20 17
8 Santamarina 16 2 7 7 9:17 13
9 Circulo Deportivo 16 2 7 7 8:16 13
Promotion - Torneo Federal (Winners stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)
Relegation - Torneo Federal (Losers stage)