Sport Picks

Argentina

Primera Nacional 2025 Estadio José María Minella

Los Andes

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Alvarado play Los Andes in the Primera Nacional 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Alvarado averaged 0.83 goals scored and 0.62 conceded. Los Andes averaged 0.72 goals scored and 0.48 conceded. In past meetings, Alvarado won 1, Los Andes won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 21, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.81 for Alvarado and 0.75 for Los Andes. This points to a Alvarado double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%

Alvarado

35%

Draws

32%

Los Andes

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Alvarado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Alvarado picked up more points recently compared to Los Andes.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.81 vs 0.75 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 38%

Over 2.5 Goals 15%

Over 3.5 Goals 9%

Over 4.5 Goals 5%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 12%

Alvarado Clean Sheet 27%

Los Andes Clean Sheet 18%

First Half Goal 34%

Second Half Goal 36%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Alvarado	Los Andes
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	9	10
Draws	13	11
Losses	7	8
Goals Scored	0.83	0.72
Goals Conceded	0.62	0.48
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.50	0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 21, 2025 Primera Nacional

Alvarado vs Los Andes

Possession: 41% - 49% Cards: 0 - 1

1:0

Jun 6, 2025 Primera Nacional

Los Andes vs Alvarado

Possession: 43% - 49% Cards: 0 - 1

1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alvarado 35 / 100

Los Andes 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Alvarado Los Andes

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Alvarado or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +32%

4.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +66.6%

11.11

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Alvarado attacking → ← attacking Los Andes

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alvarado scored in 41% of their last 29 games.

Los Andes let in goals in 38% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Alvarado went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Los Andes lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 41

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Madryn	34	16	12	6	45:28	60
2	Atletico Atlanta	34	14	13	7	31:28	55
3	Tristan Suarez	34	12	16	6	33:23	52
4	Gimnasia y Tiro	34	13	12	9	34:23	51
5	San Miguel	34	12	14	8	32:28	50
6	San Martin T.	34	12	13	9	32:29	49
7	Deportivo Maipu	34	12	12	10	34:30	48
8	Patronato	34	12	12	10	31:28	48
9	Colegiales	34	13	8	13	26:26	47
10	All Boys	34	8	17	9	26:25	41
11	Racing Cordoba	34	10	11	13	38:45	41
12	Ferro	34	10	11	13	24:33	41
13	Los Andes	34	10	10	14	28:31	40
14	Club Atletico Guemes	34	8	16	10	28:32	40
15	Quilmes	34	8	14	12	30:32	38
16	Almagro	34	7	14	13	24:31	35
17	Arsenal Sarandi	34	8	10	16	38:47	34
18	Alvarado	34	6	15	13	18:33	33

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gimnasia Mendoza	34	17	12	5	35:18	63
2	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto	34	16	12	6	35:22	60
3	CA Estudiantes	34	17	8	9	41:22	59
4	Deportivo Moron	34	15	13	6	36:19	58
5	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	15	12	7	36:20	57
6	Temperley	34	14	13	7	30:22	55
7	Agropecuario	34	15	9	10	43:34	54
8	Chaco For Ever	34	15	8	11	34:26	53
9	Chacarita Juniors	34	12	13	9	37:29	49
10	Defensores de Belgrano	34	12	12	10	30:26	48
11	Nueva Chicago	34	10	11	13	27:33	41
12	San Telmo	34	10	11	13	31:42	41
13	CA Mitre	34	10	10	14	28:31	40
14	Almirante Brown	34	8	12	14	28:38	36
15	Central Norte	34	10	6	18	27:41	36
16	Colon Santa Fe	34	9	5	20	22:39	32
17	Talleres Remedios Escalada	34	6	5	23	17:40	23
18	Defensores Unidos	34	3	12	19	17:52	21